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Energy Consumption Combination Forecast of Hebei Province Based on the IOWA Operator

机译：基于爱荷华州运营商的河北省能源消费组合预测

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摘要

Energy is the essential material for human survival, and it is the important resource for economic development and social progress. Making a reasonable and reliable development plan by forecasting the energy consumption scientifically and effectively can ensure economic healthily and orderly developing. The combination forecast method based on inducted ordered weighted average operator is used widely in these years. The difference between this model and the traditional combination forecast method is that the empowerment coefficient of the combination forecast has nothing to do with the monomial prediction model, but it is closely related to forecast precision's size of the monomial prediction model at each time-point, it is an invariable empowerment method. In this paper we adopt the time series tendency forecast model and the gray system GM (1, 1) forecast model in order to analysis the energy consumption of the Hebei Province; then, it introduces the energy consumption combination forecast model based on the IOWA operator. Empirical analysis indicates that this model can enhance the forecast precision of the combination and it is an effective combination forecast method.
机译：能源是人类生存的必要材料，是经济发展和社会进步的重要资源。通过科学有效地预测能源消耗来制定合理和可靠的发展计划，可以确保经济健康，有序地发展。基于电感有序加权平均运算符的组合预测方法在这些年内广泛使用。该模型与传统组合预测方法之间的差异是，组合预测的赋权系数与单体预测模型无关，但它与每次点的单体预测模型的预测大小密切相关，这是一种不变的赋权方法。在本文中，我们采用时间序列趋势预测模型和灰色系统（1,1）预测模型，以分析河北省的能源消耗;然后，它介绍了基于IOWA运算符的能耗组合预测模型。实证分析表明，该模型可以提高组合的预测精度，并且是一种有效的组合预测方法。

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