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Stochastic methods for prediction of the bankruptcy risk of SMEs

机译：用于预测中小企业破产风险的随机方法

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In economic theory, there were and still are concerns for the development of bankruptcy risk prediction methods starting from their rates related to the status of "health" or "weakness" of economic entities. One of the financial analysis methods commonly used today are the stochastic methods. Comparing a priori and a posteriori probabilities allows the acknowledgement of the Score areas where the risk of bankruptcy is higher. The Score function is very sensitive to any relevant changes in the economic situation and get a genuine alarm about the economic-financial status, offering the possibility of a superior quality forecasting. This paper presents, in a first part, the theoretical formulation of the same stochastic methods and Score function for the financial analysis of an economic entity and, in the second part, the results obtained by applying this methodology in the small and medium enterprises in the Romanian 3rd development Macro-region. Using this methodology has enabled both the least risk of bankruptcy for some SMEs, but also identifies strengths and weaknesses in financial management for the grounding of new strategies for maintaining and development of the unit.
机译：在经济理论中，从与经济实体“健康”或“弱势”的情况相关的利率开始，仍有令人担忧的破产风险预测方法。目前常用的金融分析方法之一是随机方法。比较先验和后验概率允许确认破产风险更高的得分区域。得分函数对经济状况的任何相关变化非常敏感，并对经济财务状况进行真正的警报，提供了卓越的质量预测。本文在第一部分呈现了相同随机方法的理论配方，对经济实体的财务分析以及在第二部分中，通过在中小企业中应用这种方法获得的结果罗马尼亚第三开发宏观区域。使用这种方法使某些中小企业的破产风险最小，而且还确定了金融管理中的优势和劣势，以实现了对维持和发展单位的新策略。

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