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Prediction of South China sea level using seasonal ARIMA models

机译:季节性Arima模型预测南海海平面

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Accelerating sea level rise is an indicator of global warming and poses a threat to low-lying places and coastal countries. This study aims to fit a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model to the time series obtained from the TOPEX and Jason series of satellite radar altimetries of the South China Sea from the year 2008 to 2015. With altimetric measurements taken in a 10-day repeat cycle, monthly averages of the satellite altimetry measurements were taken to compose the data set used in the study. SARIMA models were then tried and fitted to the time series in order to find the best-fit model. Results show that the SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)_(12) model best fits the time series and was used to forecast the values for January 2016 to December 2016. The 12-month forecast using SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)_(12) shows that the sea level gradually increases from January to September 2016, and decreases until December 2016.
机译:加速海平面上升是全球变暖的指标,对低洼地区和沿海国家构成威胁。本研究旨在将季节性自回归综合移动平均线(Sarima)模型与2008年至2015年的南海卫星雷达高分子的Topex和Jason系列中获得的时间序列拟合。在10-中拍摄的过度测量日复速循环,卫星高度测量的每月平均值被采用来组成研究中使用的数据集。然后尝试并安装了时间序列的Sarima模型,以找到最适合的模型。结果表明,Sarima(1,0,0)(0,1,1)_(12)模型最适合时间序列,用于预测2016年1月至2016年12月的价值。使用Sarima的12个月预测(1,0,0)(0,1,1)_(12)表明海平面从2016年1月至9月逐渐增加,并在2016年12月之前减少。

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