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WTO Export Restriction of Agricultural Commodities and Its Impacts for G-33 Members

机译:WTO对农产品的限制及其对G-33成员的影响

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The discussion of agricultural Export Restriction (ER) at the World Trade Organization (WTO), which is a mechanism to temporarily stop the export of agricultural product that aims to prevent food shortages in exporting countries has been intensively negotiated. However, as a net importer of agricultural products and the member of G33 countries, Indonesia should address the ER policy because it may have potential to increase prices and threaten food security in domestic market and G33 member countries. This study uses a descriptive qualitative statistical analysis to determine Import Dependency Ratio (IDR) and Self-Sufficiency Ratio (SSR) for five main imported agricultural products by G33 countries such as rice, corn, soybean, wheat, and horticulture. The Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis using GTAP ver.9 is also used to analyze the potential impact of agricultural product export restrictions for five analyzed products on macroeconomic and sectoral indicators. Based on IDR and SSR it can be concluded that almost all G33 countries heavily rely on wheat imports, as many as 36 countries depend on imported wheat with IDR values varying between 70% - 215%. On the other hand, several G-33 countries have a fairly good level of fulfillment of consumption from domestic production (SSR) or more than 80%. Moreover, based on the GTAP calculation on the Indonesia case, export restrictions will have a negative macroeconomic impact on Indonesia. However, in sectoral perspective Indonesian farmers/producers can take advantage of the impact of the export restriction policy as an opportunity to increase their production.
机译:对世界贸易组织(WTO)农业出口限制(ER)的讨论,这是一种暂时停止出口农产品出口的机制,旨在防止出口国内粮食短缺的谈判。然而,作为农产品的净进口商和G33国家的成员,印度尼西亚应解决ER政策,因为它可能有可能增加国内市场和G33成员国的价格和威胁粮食安全。本研究采用了描述性定性统计分析,以确定稻米,玉米,大豆,小麦和园艺等五个主要进口农产品的进口抚养比(IDR)和自给自足比(SSR)。使用GTAP Ver.9的可计算一般均衡(CGE)分析还用于分析农产品出口限制对宏观经济和部门指标的五种分析产品的潜在影响。基于IDR和SSR,可以得出结论,几乎所有G33国家都依赖小麦进口,多达36个国家依赖于进口小麦,IDR值不同于70%-215%。另一方面,几个G-33国家具有从国内生产(SSR)或超过80%以上消费量的相当良好的达成水平。此外,根据印度尼西亚案例的GTAP计算,出口限制将对印度尼西亚产生负面宏观经济影响。然而,在部门的观点中,印度尼西亚农民/生产者可以利用出口限制政策的影响成为提高产量的机会。

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