• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文会议>Model-based reasoning in science and technology : Abduction, logic, and computational discovery >Abducing the Crisis
【24h】

Abducing the Crisis

机译：引发危机

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Macroeconomic crises are events marked by 'broken promises' that shatter the expectations that many agents had entertained about their economic prospects and wealth positions. Crises lead to reappraisals of the views of the world upon which agents had based their expectations, plans and decisions, and to a reconsideration of theories and models on the part of analysts. A crisis triggers widespread efforts of abduction in search of new hypothesis and explanations. In this paper we will explore, in particular, the abductions that analysts may apply after a crisis and see how they reveal the prevalence of 'wrong' abductions at the onset of the crisis. In order to carry out this exercise, we study the general role of abduction in economic analysis, both theoretical and practical. Economic theory generally proceeds by constructing models, that is, mental schemes based on mental experiments. They are often written in mathematical language but, apart from their formal expression, they use metaphors, analogies and pieces of intuition to motivate their assumptions and to give support to their conclusions. We try to capture all these elements in a formal scheme and apply the ensuing model of abduction to the analysis of macroeconomic crises.
机译：宏观经济危机是以“违约”为标志的事件，打破了许多代理人对其经济前景和财富状况所抱的期望。危机导致对代理人的期望，计划和决定所依据的世界观的重新评估，并导致分析家对理论和模型的重新考虑。危机触发了绑架的广泛努力，以寻找新的假设和解释。在本文中，我们将特别探讨分析师在危机后可能发生的绑架行为，并了解它们如何揭示危机发生时“错误”绑架的普遍性。为了进行此练习，我们在理论和实践上研究了绑架在经济分析中的一般作用。经济理论通常通过构建模型（即基于心理实验的心理计划）来进行。它们通常用数学语言编写，但是除了形式表达外，它们还使用隐喻，类比和直觉来激发他们的假设并支持其结论。我们试图将所有这些要素纳入一个正式计划中，并将随后的绑架模型应用于宏观经济危机的分析。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号