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首页> 外文会议>New aspects of signal processing, computational geometry and artificial vision >Impact of ECFA on trend of exchange rate between NTD and RMB based on Grey Prediction Model
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Impact of ECFA on trend of exchange rate between NTD and RMB based on Grey Prediction Model

机译：基于灰色预测模型的ECFA对新台币与人民币汇率走势的影响

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摘要

Beginning from 2001 in which both Taiwan and China joined World Trade Organization (WTO), a large number of Taiwanese manufacturers have moved their plants across Taiwan Straight to China in search for cheaper labor force regardless of the political tensions between two countries. With the gradual easing of cross-strait political tension after the inauguration of pro-China president of Taiwan, the Taiwan Government starting from 2009 has been promoting the "Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement" (ECFA) through which the government claims the cross-strait economic and trade relations could be further enhanced and Taiwan could avoid being "marginalized" from the regional economic system. Additionally, as the two countries gradually lift restrictions on the investment and remove tariff barriers the cross-strait economic is bound to be more closely and the trade exchanges are set to skyrocket. However, since the bilateral trade or investment is generally through the U.S. dollar the fluctuation in currency exchange rate may serve as one of the important factors when the business makes the investment decision. Therefore, this paper applies Grey prediction method of Grey theory to the forecast of the exchange rate between NT dollar and RMB on which Taiwan enterprises could depend when formulating their investment strategies of investing more in China or Taiwan.
机译：从2001年中国大陆和台湾都加入世界贸易组织（WTO）开始，许多台湾制造商已将他们的工厂从台湾直迁移到中国，以寻求廉价的劳动力，而不论两国之间的政治紧张局势如何。随着亲台湾主席就职后两岸政治紧张局势的逐渐缓解，台湾政府自2009年起一直在推动“经济合作框架协议”（ECFA），据此，台湾政府要求两岸经济合作。贸易关系可以得到进一步改善，台湾可以避免被区域经济体系“边缘化”。此外，随着两国逐步取消对投资的限制并消除关税壁垒，两岸经济必将更加紧密，贸易往来将激增。但是，由于双边贸易或投资通常是通过美元进行的，因此货币汇率的波动可能是企业做出投资决定时的重要因素之一。因此，本文将灰色理论的灰色预测方法应用于台湾企业在大陆或台湾地区进行更多投资的投资策略时，台币对人民币汇率的预测。

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