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首页> 外文会议>Proceedings of the Twenty-eighth Arctic and Marine Oilspill Program(AMOP) Technical Seminar vol.1 >Persistence of Crude Oil Spills on Open Water
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Persistence of Crude Oil Spills on Open Water

机译：露天漏油事件持续存在

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摘要

The primary objective of this study was to develop mathematical descriptions of the persistence of crude oil spills at sea in open water, as a function of spill size, based on a statistical analysis of historical data. An in-depth survey of reports of oil spill incidents throughout the world was completed. Major oil spill incidents since 1967 have generated an immense amount of literature, but reliable information on oil slick persistence is rare. Of the final incident list that met the study criteria, 13 were releases from tankers and 7 were oil well blowouts. In addition to these, a list of 12 small experimental spills was compiled, for which good data existed. Correlation analyses were carried out on the three data sets and, although they by no means gave definitive results because of their small size, they did indicate the relative importance of different variables and their dependencies. Regression analysis with the three data sets showed that:rnFor spills greater than or equal to 1000 barrels in size: PD_(≥1000bbl) = 0.0001S - 1.32T + 33.1 For spills less than 1000 barrels in size:rnPD_( < 1000bbl) = 0.0034S + 2.02 Where PD = Spill persistence in days S = Spill size in barrels T = Water temperature in degrees Celsius.rnThe 95% confidence intervals for the first equation are extremely large: for a 200,000 bbl spill at 10℃ the predicted range is from 1 day to 83 days. Neither wind speed nor countermeasures had a significant effect on persistence. Estimates of statistical significance and 95% confidence intervals for the predictors were calculated and cumulative distribution function plots were prepared for several spill sizes.rnThe above predictions apply to spills of most crude oils. Some crude oils are very light, with an API Gravity exceeding 45.5°. Some of these very light crudes, or condensates have high Pour Points, and these would persist if they were spilled on water colder than their Pour Point. Many very light crudes, or condensates, have Pour Points that are less than ambient temperature and are likely to dissipate in less than one day.
机译：这项研究的主要目的是基于对历史数据的统计分析，开发对海上裸露的原油泄漏持续存在的数学描述，作为泄漏量的函数。对全世界漏油事件报告的深入调查已经完成。自1967年以来发生的重大漏油事件已产生了大量文献，但很少有关于浮油持久性的可靠信息。在符合研究标准的最终事故清单中，有13艘是从油轮中释放的，而7艘是油井井喷。除此之外，还编制了一份清单，列出了12个小规模的实验性泄漏事件，这些泄漏事件都有良好的数据。对这三个数据集进行了相关性分析，尽管由于它们的规模较小，它们并未给出确定的结果，但它们确实表明了不同变量及其相关性的相对重要性。通过三个数据集的回归分析表明：对于大于或等于1000桶的泄漏量：PD_（≥1000bbl）= 0.0001S-1.32T + 33.1对于小于1000桶的泄漏量：rnPD_（<1000bbl）= 0.0034S + 2.02其中PD =以天为单位的泄漏持续时间S =以桶为单位的泄漏量T =以摄氏度为单位的水温。rn第一个方程式的95％置信区间非常大：对于20℃时200,000 bbl泄漏，预测范围为从1天到83天。风速和对策都不会对持久性产生重大影响。计算了预测变量的统计显着性估计值和95％置信区间，并准备了几种溢油大小的累积分布函数图。上述预测适用于大多数原油的溢油。一些原油非常轻，API重力超过45.5°。这些非常轻质的原油或凝析油中有些具有较高的倾点，如果将其洒在比其倾点还冷的水上，它们将持续存在。许多非常轻质的原油或凝析油的倾点低于环境温度，并且可能在不到一天的时间内消失。

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