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首页> 外文会议>System Dynamics Society International Conference; System Dynamics Society Anniversary Celebration; 20070729-0802; 20070729-0802; Boston,MA(US); Boston,MA(US) >Dynamics of a Democracy Deeply in Debt: Simulation Studies of Federal Revenue and the Capacity of the U.S. to Service its Debt
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Dynamics of a Democracy Deeply in Debt: Simulation Studies of Federal Revenue and the Capacity of the U.S. to Service its Debt

机译：债务深处的民主动态：联邦税收和美国偿债能力的模拟研究

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摘要

The issue of the growing federal debt and whether it will be serviceable in the years to come is addressed. Can the U.S. federal government continue to expect its tax revenues to rise to the occasion? Will the retirement of seventy-seven million baby boomers result in diminished federal revenue after the year 2010? Will the changing tax structure reduce federal revenues? Will these circumstances lead in-turn to an incapacity of our federal government to service its burgeoning national debt, now nearly nine trillion dollars? Are there probable disaster scenarios that policymakers must navigate through using judicious policy choices? Is it time to start drastically cutting the federal budget? These are the questions that get addressed by the simulation models we will present.
机译：越来越多的联邦债务及其在未来几年是否可以偿还的问题得到了解决。美国联邦政府能否继续期望其税收收入增加呢？在2010年之后，七千七百万婴儿潮一代的退休是否会导致联邦收入减少？不断变化的税收结构会减少联邦收入吗？这些情况是否会导致我们的联邦政府无力偿还其迅速增长的国债，目前已接近9万亿美元？决策者是否必须使用明智的政策选择来应对可能的灾难情况？现在是时候开始大幅度削减联邦预算了吗？这些是我们将要介绍的仿真模型所解决的问题。

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