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首页> 外文会议>System Dynamics Society International Conference; System Dynamics Society Anniversary Celebration; 20070729-0802; 20070729-0802; Boston,MA(US); Boston,MA(US) >The dynamics of technological substitutions
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The dynamics of technological substitutions

机译：技术替代的动力

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摘要

Technological substitution is the process by which disruptive technologies replace the dominant ones in an industry. The formulation of classical models of diffusion and substitution impose simplification constraints to reach analytical solvability. We use the system dynamics methodology to build upon existing models by integrating dynamic aspects derived from a broad theoretical framework and to explore the links between social dynamics, technological developments and substitution patterns. Our simulation model generates a substitutive drop in the life cycle which is not replicated by classical models but substantiated by empirical data from various industries. The more general theory embodied in the model allows to better understand the underlying dynamics of technological substitutions. The generic structure can generate the dynamics of a sailing ship effect and account for the non-uniformity of interpersonal communications.
机译：技术替代是颠覆性技术取代行业主导技术的过程。经典的扩散和取代模型模型的制定施加了简化约束，以达到分析可解性。我们使用系统动力学方法论，通过整合从广泛的理论框架中得出的动态方面，在现有模型的基础上，探索社会动力学，技术发展和替代模式之间的联系。我们的仿真模型会在生命周期中产生替代性下降，这种下降不会被经典模型所复制，而是会被来自各个行业的经验数据所证实。模型中包含的更一般的理论可以更好地理解技术替代的内在动力。通用结构可以产生帆船效果的动力，并解决人际交流的不均匀性。

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