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首页> 外文会议>System Dynamics Society International Conference; System Dynamics Society Anniversary Celebration; 20070729-0802; 20070729-0802; Boston,MA(US); Boston,MA(US) >A Comprehensive Model of Goal Dynamics in Organizations: Setting, Evaluation and Revision
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A Comprehensive Model of Goal Dynamics in Organizations: Setting, Evaluation and Revision

机译：组织中目标动态的综合模型：设置，评估和修订

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摘要

Goal setting plays a central role in most simulation models of individual or social behavior. In the simplest case, there is a constant goal and the modeling effort focuses on the difficulties involved in reaching that given goal. In more realistic situations, the goal itself is variable: it can erode as a result of various phenomena such as deeply rooted traditions or frustration due to persistent failure, it can evolve further as a result of confidence caused by consistent success, or it can be consciously evaluated and adjusted periodically as a result of some formal process. In any case, 'goal dynamics' constitutes a fundamental sub-problem in most situations dealing with dynamics of individual or social behavior. As such, there has been considerable research effort on how to model the dynamics of goal formation in system dynamics models. With respect to the three types of goal dynamics mentioned above, in the literature there exist some model structures that capture certain limited and linear 'goal erosion' dynamics. We extend the existing models to obtain a most general theory of goal formation dynamics, by including performance improvement capacity constraints, short term and long term time pressures in reaching the set goal and more realistic, richer mechanisms of goal erosion. We show that the system can exhibit very subtle non-linear problematic dynamics in such cases. The model is generic in the sense that it offers a general theory of goal formation, including potential goal erosion (caused by persistent poor performance) as well as positive goal evolution dynamics (as a result of consistent success), and more complex dynamics resulting from interactions of these two extremes. Our model also offers some adaptive goal setting strategies to avoid the undesirable goal and performance erosion dynamics typically experienced in complex, risky goal-seeking environments.
机译：在大多数个人或社会行为模拟模型中，目标设定起着核心作用。在最简单的情况下，目标是不变的，建模工作着重于实现给定目标所涉及的困难。在更现实的情况下，目标本身是可变的：它可能由于各种现象而腐烂，例如根深蒂固的传统或由于持续失败而产生的挫败感；由于持续不断的成功所产生的信心，它可以进一步发展，或者可以是由于某种形式的过程而有意识地定期评估和调整。无论如何，在大多数情况下，“目标动力”构成一个基本的子问题，涉及个人或社会行为的动力。这样，在如何在系统动力学模型中对目标形成的动力学进行建模方面，已经进行了大量的研究工作。关于上述三种类型的目标动力学，文献中存在一些模型结构，这些模型结构捕获了某些有限的线性“目标侵蚀”动力学。通过扩展性能改进能力约束，达到既定目标的短期和长期时间压力以及更现实，更丰富的目标侵蚀机制，我们扩展了现有模型，以获取最通用的目标形成动力学理论。我们表明，在这种情况下，系统可以表现出非常微妙的非线性问题动力学。该模型是通用的，因为它提供了目标形成的一般理论，包括潜在的目标侵蚀（由于持续的不良表现所致）以及积极的目标演变动态（由于持续的成功所致），以及由目标产生的更复杂的动态这两个极端的相互作用。我们的模型还提供了一些自适应的目标设定策略，以避免在复杂，有风险的目标寻求环境中通常会遇到的不良目标和绩效侵蚀动态。

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