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首页> 外文会议>Thirty-Ninth Space Congress, Apr 30-May 3, 2002, Cape Canaveral, Florida >US Commercial Space Launch in the 21st Century
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US Commercial Space Launch in the 21st Century

机译：21世纪美国商业空间的发射

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The programmatic foundations for the optimistic technical and competitive outlook for the EELV systems have not materialized. The commercial launch business began again in earnest in the US after the Space Shuttle Challenger accident in 1986 caused a major revision to US space launch policy. US industrial ventures into commercial space launch and then the EELV program's strategy revisions to develop two viable launch provider sources were all based on robust launch demand forecasts that do not exist today. Out of the combined US government and industry review of the string of successive US space launch failures in the late 90's, the Government and industry agreed to jointly undertake additional measures to ensure mission success of the EELV systems. However, neither EELV has flown and perceived risks have resulted in an intensified USG sensitivity for mission success. This means that for the first few years of EELV operations the US government and industry will focus on detecting and preventing early problems and demonstrating reliable performance. Assuming successful EELV launches, the companies should have established confidence in their launch programs by 2005. By that time, better predictive and analytical means may come about to forecast launch demand. Hopefully a more realistic characterization of commercial launch opportunities will exist. With the unique advantage of being the sole sources for the US government anchor business, we believe both EELV contractors could well become formidable international competitors who could dominate the international space launch market.
机译：EELV系统的乐观技术和竞争前景的计划基础尚未实现。在1986年航天飞机挑战者号事故对美国的航天发射政策进行了重大修订之后，商业发射业务再次在美国重新开始。美国工业企业涉足商业空间发射，然后对EELV计划进行战略修订，以开发两个可行的发射提供商资源，这些都是基于当今尚不存在的强劲发射需求预测。在美国政府和工业界对90年代后期美国连续发射失败的一连串评论中，政府和工业界同意共同采取其他措施，以确保EELV系统的任务成功。但是，EELV都没有飞过，而且感知到的风险并未导致USG对任务成功的敏感性增强。这意味着在EELV运营的头几年，美国政府和行业将专注于发现和预防早期问题并展示可靠的性能。假设EELV发射成功，两家公司应该在2005年之前建立起对发射计划的信心。到那时，可能会有更好的预测和分析手段来预测发射需求。希望将有一个更现实的商业发布机会特征。凭借其作为美国政府锚业务唯一来源的独特优势，我们相信EELV的两家承包商都可能成为强大的国际竞争者，它们可以主导国际太空发射市场。

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