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Estimating injury severity and cost in two-vehicle crashes.

机译:估算两车相撞的伤害严重程度和成本。

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摘要

This dissertation performs a comprehensive analysis of the effect of different environmental, demographic and vehicle variables on the severity of two-vehicle crashes. The limitations associated with previous studies have been addressed by using a large crash database, properly defining the independent variables, using appropriate statistical models, and by considering the effect of factors normally unaccounted for such as crash type, impact speed, and weight or height incompatibilities between the two vehicles.;The use of multinomial logit models at the individual occupant and crash levels provides the flexibility to evaluate variables that have opposing effects at different injury levels (such as airbags). Alternative formulations with interaction terms and with instrumental variables are included. An analysis of marginal probabilities and costs is also provided, which is particularly useful when discussing potential safety treatments with transportation officials, politicians and other decision makers.;The findings from the different models are consistent and suggest that the type of crash has a great impact on severity. Age is the most significant demographic variable, with children and older occupants being least and most likely to be injured, respectively. Behavior also seems to be critical, as the use of seatbelts greatly decreases occupant injuries. Heavier vehicles increase the safety of its occupants but decrease the safety of occupants of the other vehicle. The effect of vehicle type is not as significant as weight, with the exception of pickups, which are both more crashworthy and more aggressive than passenger cars. Further research is needed on the effects of airbags and impaired driving, as the analyses conducted have been inconclusive.
机译:本文对不同环境,人口统计学和车辆变量对两车碰撞严重程度的影响进行了综合分析。通过使用大型碰撞数据库,正确定义自变量,使用适当的统计模型以及考虑通常无法解释的因素(例如碰撞类型,撞击速度以及重量或高度不兼容)的影响,可以解决与先前研究相关的局限性在各个乘员和碰撞级别上使用多项式logit模型,可以灵活地评估在不同伤害级别(例如安全气囊)产生相反影响的变量。包括具有交互作用术语和工具变量的替代配方。还提供了边际概率和成本的分析,在与运输官员,政客和其他决策者讨论潜在的安全措施时特别有用;;不同模型的发现是一致的,并表明碰撞的类型具有重大影响在严重性上。年龄是最重要的人口统计学变量,儿童和较大的乘员分别是受伤最少和最可能受伤的人群。行为似乎也很关键,因为使用安全带可以大大减少乘员受伤。较重的车辆增加了其乘员的安全性,但降低了另一辆车辆的乘员的安全性。车辆类型的影响不如重量重要,皮卡除外,皮卡比乘用车更耐撞,而且更具侵略性。由于进行的分析尚无定论,因此需要进一步研究安全气囊和驾驶不便的影响。

著录项

  • 作者

    Angel, Alejandro.;

  • 作者单位

    The University of Arizona.;

  • 授予单位 The University of Arizona.;
  • 学科 Engineering Civil.;Transportation.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2008
  • 页码 230 p.
  • 总页数 230
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 建筑科学;综合运输;
  • 关键词

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