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Engineering-based probabilistic risk assessment for food safety with application to Escherichia coli O157:H7 contamination in cheese.

机译：基于工程的食品安全概率风险评估，应用于奶酪中的O157：H7大肠杆菌污染。

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摘要

A new methodology is introduced in which engineering-based tools and techniques are adapted to quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) in order to offer a more systematic solution to food safety problems. By integrating available microbial data and adapted engineering techniques within the traditional QMRA framework, this new methodology addresses some of the deficiencies of traditional approaches. Through the use of a hierarchical structure, the system is decomposed into its most basic elements so that the interrelationships and interdependences of these basic elements are captured. This hierarchical structure also identifies variability throughout the process, resulting in a risk model in which multiple scenarios can be analyzed. In addition, the engineering approach adapts methods for characterizing and propagating uncertainties. Unlike the traditional approaches in food safety, the engineering-based methodology relies on mathematical models; the uncertainties about these models (both aleatory and epistemic), as well as the uncertainties about the model parameters, are formally quantified and properly considered. This separation and characterization of uncertainties results in a more powerful risk model, so that assessments can be made as to whether additional information or changes to the physical system will reduce the total uncertainty. Finally, this research characterizes the validity of the various dose-response models. Comparison of actual outbreak observations to model predictions lends credibility and assesses uncertainty of the developed dose-response models. Thus, the results of the risk model can be used both as an absolute assessment of risk and as a relative measurement of mitigation and control strategies.; As a case study, the engineering-based methodology is applied to the problem of Escherichia coli O157:H7 contamination in cheese. While it has been assumed that pathogenic microorganisms in raw milk die during cheese-making, several studies on the survival of E. coli O157:H7 in cheese have demonstrated growth during cheese manufacturing. Furthermore, E. coli O157:H7 has been linked to several outbreaks involving cheese, thereby establishing the need to investigate this route of transmission. The successful application of the engineering-based approach to the problem of E. coli O157:H7 contamination in cheese suggests that this new methodology can be applied to other food safety problems.
机译：引入了一种新方法，其中基于工程的工具和技术适用于定量微生物风险评估（QMRA），以便为食品安全问题提供更系统的解决方案。通过在传统的QMRA框架内集成可用的微生物数据和适应的工程技术，这种新方法可以解决传统方法的一些不足。通过使用层次结构，系统被分解为最基本的元素，从而捕获了这些基本元素的相互关系和相互依赖性。这种层次结构还可以识别整个过程中的可变性，从而形成一个可以分析多个场景的风险模型。此外，工程方法还适用于表征和传播不确定性的方法。与传统的食品安全方法不同，基于工程的方法依赖于数学模型。对这些模型的不确定性（偶然的和认知的）以及模型参数的不确定性进行了正式量化和适当考虑。不确定性的这种分离和特征化导致了更强大的风险模型，因此可以对附加信息或物理系统的更改是否会减少总不确定性进行评估。最后，本研究表征了各种剂量反应模型的有效性。将实际爆发观察结果与模型预测结果进行比较可提高可信度，并评估已开发剂量反应模型的不确定性。因此，风险模型的结果既可以用作风险的绝对评估，也可以用作缓解和控制策略的相对度量。作为案例研究，基于工程的方法论被应用于奶酪中的大肠杆菌O157：H7污染问题。尽管人们认为生乳中的致病微生物会在奶酪制作过程中死亡，但有关奶酪中大肠杆菌O157：H7存活的多项研究表明，奶酪制作过程中会生长这种细菌。此外，大肠杆菌O157：H7已与几起涉及干酪的暴发相关，因此需要研究这种传播途径。基于工程的方法成功应用于奶酪中大肠杆菌O157：H7污染的问题表明，这种新方法可以应用于其他食品安全问题。

著录项

  • 作者

    Fretz, Kristin Ann.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Maryland, College Park.;

  • 授予单位 University of Maryland, College Park.;
  • 学科 Engineering Mechanical.; Biology Microbiology.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2006
  • 页码 320 p.
  • 总页数 320
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 机械、仪表工业;微生物学;
  • 关键词

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