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A quantitative correlational investigation of the definition of key decision variables used for the determination of wind energy systems' feasibility.

机译：对用于确定风能系统可行性的关键决策变量的定义进行定量相关研究。

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摘要

Several factors are critical in determining if a wind farm has a high probability of success. These factors include wind energy potential or wind class, sales price, cost of the wind energy generated, market for selling the wind, capacity factor or efficiency of the turbines, capital investment cost, debt and financing, and governmental factors such as taxes and incentives. This research studied the critical factors of thirty-three land based wind farms in the United States with over 20 mega-watts (MW) of capacity that have become operational since 1999. The goal was to develop a simple yet effective decision model using the critical factors to predict an internal rate of return (IRR) and the impact of having a tax credit to supplement the revenue stream. The study found that there are five critical factors that are significantly correlated with the internal rate of return (IRR) of a wind farm project. The critical factors are wind potential or wind class, cost of the wind energy generated, capacity factor or efficiency of the wind turbines, cost of capital investment, and the existence of a federal production tax credit (PTC). The decision model was built using actual wind farm data and industry standards whereby a score from zero to one hundred was coded for each of values except for the production tax credit. Since all the projects qualified for the production tax credit prior to their start up, it was no longer a variable. However, without the presence of this tax credit, the data imply that the projects would not be profitable within the first ten to fifteen years of operation. The scores for each of the categories were totaled and regressed against a calculated internal rate of return. There was ninety-seven percent correlation which was supported by simulation analysis. While this model is not intended to supplant rigorous accounting and financial study, it will help quickly determine if a site has potential and save many hours of analytical work.
机译：在确定风电场是否成功的可能性很高时，有几个因素至关重要。这些因素包括风能潜力或风能类别，销售价格，产生的风能成本，出售风的市场，涡轮机的容量因子或效率，资本投资成本，债务和融资以及政府因素（例如税收和激励措施） 。这项研究研究了自1999年以来已投入运营的美国三十三个陆上风电场的关键因素，这些风电场的容量超过20兆瓦（MW）。目标是使用关键因素开发一种简单而有效的决策模型预测内部收益率（IRR）的因素以及获得税收抵免以补充收入来源的影响。研究发现，有五个关键因素与风电场项目的内部收益率（IRR）显着相关。关键因素是风能或风能类别，所产生的风能成本，风力涡轮机的容量因子或效率，资本投资成本以及联邦生产税收抵免（PTC）的存在。决策模型是使用实际的风电场数据和行业标准构建的，其中除生产税收抵免外，每个值的得分都从零到一百。由于所有项目在启动前都有资格获得生产税抵免，因此不再是变量。但是，如果没有这种税收抵免，则数据表明这些项目在运营的前十至十五年内将无法盈利。将每个类别的得分进行总计，并针对计算出的内部收益率进行回归。有97％的相关性得到了仿真分析的支持。尽管此模型并非要取代严格的会计和财务研究，但它将有助于快速确定站点是否具有潜力，并节省大量的分析工作时间。

著录项

  • 作者

    Kelly, Kathleen M.;

  • 作者单位

    Northcentral University.;

  • 授予单位 Northcentral University.;
  • 学科 Environmental engineering.;Economics.;Energy.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2006
  • 页码 122 p.
  • 总页数 122
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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