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Managerial risk in information technology investments: Effects of framing, narrow framing and time inconsistent preferences on real options exercise decisions.

机译：信息技术投资中的管理风险：框架，狭窄框架和时间不一致的偏好对实物期权行使决策的影响。

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摘要

Real options theory has been advocated as a solution to risky IT investment decisions. IT investments decisions are risky due to uncertainty around future outcomes and the inability of traditional financial measures (like NPV, IRR) to account for inherent managerial flexibility. On the one hand, it is argued that real options analysis captures and formalizes managers' intuition, hence creating a disciplined decision making process. On the other hand, the intuitive valuation of the options is criticized due to the prevalent effects of various judgmental biases. In this dissertation, we explore three potential biases that can affect the real option exercise decisions in terms of either suboptimal option exercise choice due to framing and narrow framing effects, or suboptimal exercise time due to time inconsistent preferences of IT managers. We test for framing effects in individual IT project decisions and narrow framing effects in IT portfolio decisions, by conducting an online experiment among top and mid-level IT professionals. The results show that IT professionals are prone to framing real options at exercise time and simplifying complicated real option exercise decisions by isolating them in IT portfolios. Further, their decisions are influenced by their personal risk preferences.;We analyze the effect of time-inconsistent preferences of present-biased managers on the exercise time of real growth and abandonment options and the realized values using a discrete time option valuation model. The results show that present-biased managers are more likely to exercise growth options early when the net payoffs are low, the growth option payoffs have high volatility, and the risk free discount rate is small. Also, present-biased managers are more likely to exercise abandonment option late when the net payoffs from continuing the project are high, salvage value of the project is low, and the rate of change in the salvage value over the period of time is low. In addition, present biased managers are more likely to exercise a growth option early in its life when the project is performing well. We provide implications for practice and IT governance.
机译：提倡实物期权理论作为风险IT投资决策的解决方案。由于未来结果的不确定性以及传统财务指标（例如NPV，IRR）无法解释固有的管理灵活性，因此IT投资决策存在风险。一方面，有人认为实物期权分析可以捕捉并形式化经理人的直觉，从而创建了纪律严明的决策过程。另一方面，由于各种判断偏差的普遍影响，人们对期权的直观估值提出了批评。在本文中，我们从框架和狭窄的框架效应导致的次优期权行使选择，或者由于IT经理的时间不一致导致的次优行使时间，探讨了三种可能影响实物期权行使决策的潜在偏差。通过在高层和中层IT专业人员之间进行在线实验，我们测试单个IT项目决策中的框架效应和IT投资组合决策中的狭窄框架效应。结果表明，IT专业人员倾向于在行权时制定实物期权，并通过将其隔离在IT投资组合中来简化复杂的实物期权行权决策。此外，他们的决定还受到他们个人风险偏好的影响。我们使用离散时间期权估值模型分析了当前偏向型经理的时间不一致偏好对实际增长和放弃期权的行使时间以及实现价值的影响。结果表明，当净收益低，增长期权收益具有高波动性且无风险折现率较小时，以当前为偏向的经理人更可能早日行使增长期权。同样，当从继续进行该项目获得的净收益很高，该项目的残值较低并且该残值在一段时间内的变化率较低时，当前偏向的经理更有可能在较晚时行使放弃期权。此外，当项目表现良好时，目前有偏见的管理人员更有可能在其生命周期的早期阶段执行增长方案。我们为实践和IT治理提供了启示。

著录项

  • 作者

    Khan, Sarah S.;

  • 作者单位

    The University of North Carolina at Charlotte.;

  • 授予单位 The University of North Carolina at Charlotte.;
  • 学科 Management.;Information technology.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2012
  • 页码 252 p.
  • 总页数 252
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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