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The Economics of Water Infrastructure Investments in the Dong Nai River Delta.

机译：同奈河三角洲水利基础设施投资的经济学。

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摘要

The Dong Nai River Delta is the home of extensive agricultural production areas and the main urban center of economic activity in South Vietnam. The Delta is currently subject to extreme seasonal hydrologic conditions. Flooding occurs in the rainy season due to heavy rains, high tides and tropical storms, while salinity accumulates in the dry season as result of low river flows and high sea tides. Changes in the physical forces governing the Delta, such as the sea level and the runoff patterns, are likely to aggravate current problems. Water infrastructure investments have been proposed as a long-term strategy for managing both expected physical changes and regional development in the Delta. This dissertation proposes an economic framework for analyzing water infrastructure investments in the context of climate change and economic development.;The first part of this dissertation focuses on the analysis of water infrastructure investments to mitigate the effects of increased salinization of agricultural land during the dry season. Sluice gate construction has been identified as a suitable option to control salinity in the Delta. A mathematical programming model of agricultural production is developed in chapter 2 to examine the effects of increased salinity on agricultural production losses, which provide the economic justification for sluice gate investments. The model is used to deduce possible adjustments in the extensive margin as a response to salinity. Chapter 2 further explores the implications of introducing salt resistant rice varieties for the estimation of agricultural damages due to salinity. Results suggest that production losses can be alleviated by switching to crops with higher tolerance for salinity.;An economic model of sluice gate construction is developed in chapter 3. This model uses a dynamic optimization framework to analyze the appropriate timing and location of sluice gate investments in the delta. Results suggest that given the significant costs of construction, early sluice gate investment is not economical if salinity increases are gradual over time. Investments are also delayed when the possibility of adjusting cropping patterns and introducing salt-resistant varieties are taken into account. The model also considers the optimal location of the sluice gate. Results suggest that abandoning regions closer to the sea and concentrating salinity control in upstream regions is more efficient, because downstream regions have lower productivity and imply higher investment costs, and because sluice gates do not need to be as wide.;The last part of this dissertation focuses on the analysis of water infrastructure investments to alleviate the effects of increased flooding during the rainy season. Chapter 4 presents a dynamic optimization model of dike investments. The model is used to analyze the optimal timing and amount of dike height increases as a response to increased flooding probability and urban growth. Dike construction costs typically increase non-linearly in height and involve a fixed cost. Results suggest that increasing dike heights gradually in response to changing conditions is preferred to an early adjustment of dikes to future flood conditions. Moreover, it is more efficient to reinforce dikes at periodic intervals, given fixed costs. Prioritizing flood protection on the sole basis of efficiency can lead to inequitable outcomes. The model predicts that poorer areas will be subject to lower protection standards.
机译：同奈河三角洲是广阔的农业生产地区的所在地，也是越南南部经济活动的主要城市中心。三角洲目前受到极端季节性水文条件的影响。由于暴雨，高潮和热带风暴，在雨季会发生洪水，而在干旱季节，由于河流流量低和海潮高，盐分会累积。控制三角洲的物理力（例如海平面和径流模式）的变化可能会加剧当前的问题。提议将水基础设施投资作为管理三角洲预期的自然变化和区域发展的一项长期战略。本文提出了一个在气候变化和经济发展的背景下分析水利基础设施投资的经济框架。论文的第一部分着重于水利基础设施投资的分析，以减轻干旱季节农业土地盐碱化增加的影响。 。闸门构造已被确定为控制三角洲盐度的合适选择。第二章建立了农业生产的数学规划模型，以检验盐度增加对农业生产损失的影响，这为闸门投资提供了经济依据。该模型用于推论对盐度的响应而可能在大范围内进行的调整。第2章进一步探讨了引入耐盐水稻品种对盐度造成的农业损害的评估的意义。结果表明，改用盐分耐受性强的作物可以减轻生产损失。；第3章开发了一种闸门建设的经济模型。该模型使用动态优化框架来分析闸门投资的适当时机和地点。在三角洲。结果表明，鉴于建设成本高昂，如果随着时间的推移逐渐增加盐度，则提前进行闸门投资是不经济的。如果考虑到调整种植方式和引入耐盐品种的可能性，投资也会被推迟。该模型还考虑了水闸的最佳位置。结果表明，放弃更靠近海域的区域和将盐分控制集中在上游区域更有效，因为下游区域生产力较低且意味着较高的投资成本，并且闸门不必那么宽。论文着重于对水利基础设施投资的分析，以减轻雨季洪水泛滥的影响。第4章介绍了堤防投资的动态优化模型。该模型用于分析堤防高度的最佳时机和数量，以响应洪水泛滥的可能性和城市增长。堤防建设成本通常会在高度上非线性增加，并涉及固定成本。结果表明，应根据条件的变化逐渐增加堤防高度，而不是尽早调整堤防以适应未来的洪水状况。此外，在固定成本的情况下，以定期间隔加固堤防更为有效。仅以效率为基础优先考虑防洪会导致不公平的结果。该模型预测，贫困地区的保护标准将降低。

著录项

  • 作者

    Corderi Novoa, David.;

  • 作者单位

    University of California, Davis.;

  • 授予单位 University of California, Davis.;
  • 学科 Economics Agricultural.;Economics Environmental.;Water Resource Management.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2011
  • 页码 121 p.
  • 总页数 121
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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