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Earthquake early warning and the physics of earthquake rupture.

机译：地震预警和地震破裂的物理学。

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摘要

One of the great debates in seismology today revolves around the question of whether earthquake ruptures are self-similar, cascading failures, or whether their size is somehow predetermined at the start of the rupture. If earthquakes are self-similar there is theoretically no way to determine the magnitude of an event until the rupture has completely terminated, while if it is deterministic the magnitude should be immediately discernible. Recent advances in Earthquake Early Warning methodologies provide new insight into the fundamental physics of earthquake rupture and highlight the importance of understanding the answer to this question.Observations of the amplitude and frequency content of early P-wave arrivals suggest that some information about the final size of an earthquake is already present within a few seconds of the initiation of rupture, in agreement with a host of other observations that show a degree of scaling between large and small earthquakes. While this suggests that earthquakes are deterministic, there is likewise a large body of work, both observational and model-based, that indicates that this is not true and earthquakes are self-similar.This work documents the process of calibrating and testing the ElarmS Earthquake Early Warning methodology in northern California on the Northern California and Berkeley Digital Seismic Networks. In the process the work adds to the body of observations which show a dependency on event magnitude of P-wave frequency content and amplitude. These observations are corroborated with a new set of independent observations of kinematic slip distributions. These new observations indicate that the early slip on a fault also scales with magnitude and suggest again that earthquakes are not entirely self-similar cascading events.In an effort to assign a physical mechanism to the observations of scaling, both in P-waves and in kinematic slip inversions, a hypothetical model is tested wherein the intensity of the early rupture imparts more or less energy to the rupture front and affects the likelihood of the rupture continuing or dying out in the face of unfavorable conditions further along the fault plane. The results of testing this hypothesis are somewhat equivocal, but they are suggestive of the likely truth, that earthquakes exhibit aspects of both deterministic and cascading rupture to some degree. Understanding the details of the interplay between these two aspects is crucial to the successful application of Earthquake Early Warning systems, especially in rare large earthquakes for which there is little empirical data on the performance of these systems.
机译：当今地震学上的一大争论围绕着地震破裂是否是自相似的，级联的破裂，或者破裂开始时是否预先确定其大小的问题展开。如果地震是自相似的，则理论上直到破裂完全终止之前，尚无办法确定事件的严重程度，而如果是确定性的，则应立即可辨别其大小。地震早期预警方法的最新进展为地震破裂的基本物理学提供了新见识，并突出了理解这一问题答案的重要性。对早期P波到达的振幅和频率含量的观察表明，有关最终地震波大小的一些信息破裂开始后几秒钟内就已经发生了一次地震，这与许多其他显示大地震和小地震之间的缩放程度的观测结果一致。虽然这表明地震是确定性的，但同样有大量工作（无论是观察性工作还是基于模型的工作）都表明事实并非如此，地震是自相似的。该工作记录了ElarmS地震的校准和测试过程。北加州和伯克利数字地震台网上的北加州预警方法。在此过程中，这项工作增加了观测内容，这些观测结果显示了对P波频率内容和振幅的事件幅度的依赖性。这些观察结果与运动滑移分布的一组新的独立观察结果相符。这些新的观测结果表明，断层上的早期滑移也随强度变化，这再次表明地震并非完全是自相似的级联事件。在运动滑移反演中，测试了一个假设模型，其中，早期破裂的强度或多或少地赋予了破裂前缘能量，并影响了沿不利面进一步沿着破裂平面继续破裂或死亡的可能性。检验该假设的结果有些模棱两可，但它们暗示了可能的事实，即地震在一定程度上表现出确定性和级联破裂的特征。了解这两个方面之间相互作用的细节对于地震预警系统的成功应用至关重要，特别是在罕见的大地震中，这些系统几乎没有关于这些系统性能的经验数据。

著录项

  • 作者

    Wurman, Gilead.;

  • 作者单位

    University of California, Berkeley.;

  • 授予单位 University of California, Berkeley.;
  • 学科 Geophysics.Engineering Geophysical.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2010
  • 页码 97 p.
  • 总页数 97
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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