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Incorporating highway asset life expectancy into long-term fiscal planning - a risk-based, probabilistic approach.

机译：将公路资产预期寿命纳入长期财务计划中-一种基于风险的概率方法。

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摘要

vital aspect of cost-effective highway asset management is the estimation of asset life expectancies. Using reliable estimates of asset service life, agencies can modify replacement intervals, plan physical and financial work, and identify those designs that are best suited to a region. To aid agencies in these tasks, this dissertation presents a proposed general, overarching framework for asset life estimation. Also, while the typical practice in planning is to apply life estimates deterministically, this dissertation demonstrates, with evidence, the benefits of using risk-based, probabilistic approaches. In demonstrating the developed methodologies, life expectancy models were calibrated for a number of asset classes and sensitivity and risk analyses were conducted to quantify the uncertainties associated with asset life. Further, the propagation of such uncertainty was quantified through its consequences on long-term, capital needs assessments. It was determined that in order to mitigate the uncertainty associated with Indiana's bridge replacement needs over a 15-year planning horizon, a contingency amount of
机译：具有成本效益的高速公路资产管理的重要方面是资产寿命的估计。通过使用可靠的资产使用寿命估算，代理商可以修改更换间隔，计划物理和财务工作，并确定最适合某个地区的设计。为了帮助机构完成这些任务，本文提出了一个建议的，总体的资产寿命估计总体框架。同样，尽管计划中的典型做法是确定性地应用寿命估计，但本文以证据证明了使用基于风险的概率方法的好处。在演示已开发的方法时，针对多种资产类别对预期寿命模型进行了校准，并进行了敏感性和风险分析以量化与资产寿命相关的不确定性。此外，通过不确定性对长期资本需求评估的影响来量化这种不确定性的传播。为了减轻印第安纳州桥梁更换需求在15年规划期内的不确定性，已确定应急费用为

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  • 作者

    Ford, Kevin Matthew.;

  • 作者单位

    Purdue University.;

  • 授予单位 Purdue University.;
  • 学科 Engineering Civil.;Urban and Regional Planning.;Transportation.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2011
  • 页码 287 p.
  • 总页数 287
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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