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Treating the future fairly: Complications of uncertainty for sustainability.

机译：公平对待未来：不确定性给可持续发展带来的复杂性。

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We address some of the challenges that uncertainty poses to economic analyses of sustainability. We focus on the act of choice and the epistemic and ethical context of that act, rather than on sharing rules. The nature of the uncertainty that decision makers face importantly affects the objective function and management outcomes.; Chapter 2 reviews different epistemic conditions that can afflict a decision maker concerned with honoring the future's rights. We find that under conditions of nescience, adopting a safe minimum standard of conservation is neither ad hoc nor economically inefficient. Thus, what is to be sustained is a function of the epistemic conditions.; The future must necessarily accept the consequences of our actions. Chapter 3 addresses the question of what constitutes responsible choice on behalf of the future, and borrows from trust law for guidance. Under conditions of risk and uncertainty one cannot know that an action will in fact provide the future its due. The responsible trustee must exercise more caution when acting on behalf of the trust beneficiary than when acting on behalf of himself.; Chapter 4 focuses on causes and persistence of ecological uncertainty. While much is made of ecologists' and economists' differences, in problems of inference they share a great deal. Different ways of making decisions when more than one model fits available data roughly comparably well are discussed. If near-term ecosystem responses to management treatments are uncertain, then our ability to predict long-term consequences of substituting constructed for natural capital will be even more so. Current-day ecological uncertainties raise questions about how concern for the future should be folded in with the difficulties that uncertainty pose.; Through computer simulations, the thesis explores economic, biological, and ecological consequences of different decision strategies. The backbone of the modeling effort consists of a twenty pool food web model of Lake Superior, a welfare model for Great Lakes fisheries, and commercial fishery cost estimates for harvests in Lake Superior. Different decision strategies are considered in both single-species and broader food web contexts, using dynamic programming.
机译：我们解决不确定性给可持续性经济分析带来的一些挑战。我们专注于选择行为以及该行为的认知和伦理背景，而不是共享规则。决策者面临的不确定性的性质对目标功能和管理结果产生重要影响。第2章回顾了可能影响决策者尊重未来权利的各种认知条件。我们发现，在有良心的情况下，采用安全的最低保护标准既不是 ad hoc 也不是经济效率低下的事情。因此，要维持的是认知状况的函数。未来必须接受我们行动的后果。第三章讨论了什么构成代表未来的负责任选择，并借鉴了信托法作为指导。在风险和不确定性的条件下，人们不知道一项行动实际上会为未来提供应有的责任。负责受托人在代表信托受益人行事时必须比在代表自己行事时更加谨慎。第四章重点介绍了生态不确定性的原因和持续性。尽管生态学家和经济学家的差异很多，但在推理问题上它们却有很多共同之处。讨论了在多个模型大致可比较地适合可用数据时做出决策的不同方法。如果不确定生态系统对管理措施的近期反应，那么我们预测替代自然资本的长期后果的能力将更加强大。当前的生态不确定性提出了一个问题，即如何将不确定性带来的困难纳入对未来的关注。通过计算机模拟，本文探讨了不同决策策略的经济，生物和生态后果。建模工作的主要内容包括苏必利尔湖的二十库食物网模型，大湖区渔业的福利模型以及苏必利尔湖收获的商业渔业成本估算。使用动态规划，在单一物种和更广泛的食物网络环境中都考虑了不同的决策策略。

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