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Essays on the equity risk premium.

机译:股权风险溢价论文。

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摘要

The equity risk premium (ERP) is an essential component of any asset pricing model both for academics and practitioners alike. Nevertheless, the financial literature does not accord much attention to the ERP estimation issues (Damodaran, 2015). The first chapter of this dissertation gives a summary of the recent literature review on the subject of the ERP. The second chapter explores four of the most commonly cited models in literature for estimating the ERP: the Historical Mean of Realized Returns Model (HMRRM), the Dividend Discount Model (DDM), the Free Cash Flow Model (FCFM), and the Sharpe Ratio Model (SRM). The results indicate that the estimates of the ERP vary considerably depending on (a) the variable of choice for the risk free rate; (b) the selection and the length of the estimation period; (c) and the estimation method. The DDM and the FCFM produce estimates for the implied ERP that are below the historical estimates, while the SRM produces implied ERP values that are usually higher than the historical values of the ERP. The post 2008 financial crisis period produces estimates for the historical ERP that are slightly higher or lower than the implied ERP estimates for the FCFM. The implied ERP estimates for the three models are more volatile than the historical ERP. In particular, estimates of the implied ERP from the SRM tend to overshoot the historical ERP estimates during periods of high volatility and fall below the historical level during periods of low stock market volatility.;The third chapter explores the relationship between the expected ERP and macroeconomic variables. The results from the four OLS regressions indicate that the relationship between the expected ERP and the unexpected inflation volatility is in general negative and insignificant even after accounting for recessionary periods. The results validate the Proxy Hypothesis theory of Fama. On the other hand, the expected ERP is found to be positively correlated with the stock market volatility in times of non-recessionary periods but negatively correlated in times of recessionary periods.
机译:对于学者和从业人员而言,股权风险溢价(ERP)都是任何资产定价模型的重要组成部分。然而,金融文献并未对ERP估算问题给予太多关注(Damodaran,2015年)。本文的第一章总结了有关ERP的最新文献综述。第二章探讨了用于估计ERP的文献中最常引用的四个模型:历史平均收益率模型(HMRRM),股息折现模型(DDM),自由现金流模型(FCFM)和夏普比率模型(SRM)。结果表明,ERP的估计值取决于(a)无风险利率的选择变量; (b)估计期的选择和期限; (三)和估算方法。 DDM和FCFM产生的隐含ERP估计值低于历史估计值,而SRM产生的隐含ERP值通常高于ERP的历史值。 2008年后的金融危机时期产生的历史ERP估算值略高于或低于FCFM的隐含ERP估算值。这三个模型的隐含ERP估算值比历史ERP波动性更大。特别是,在SRM中对隐含ERP的估计往往会在高波动时期超过ERP的历史估计,而在股市低波动时期则低于历史水平。;第三章探讨了预期ERP与宏观经济之间的关系。变量。四个OLS回归的结果表明,即使在考虑了经济衰退期之后,预期的ERP与预期的通货膨胀波动之间的关系也通常是负的且微不足道的。研究结果验证了法玛的代理假说理论。另一方面,在非经济衰退时期,预期的ERP与股票市场的波动呈正相关,而在经济衰退时期则与股票市场的波动呈负相关。

著录项

  • 作者

    Rahoui, Mohamed Mehdi.;

  • 作者单位

    Old Dominion University.;

  • 授予单位 Old Dominion University.;
  • 学科 Business administration.;Finance.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2016
  • 页码 126 p.
  • 总页数 126
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 古生物学;
  • 关键词

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