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Using decision and risk analysis to assist in policy making about terrorism.

机译：使用决策和风险分析来协助制定有关恐怖主义的政策。

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摘要

Risk has been characterized as a function of a potential threat, vulnerability to the threat, and the consequences were the threat to be carried out. In the context of terrorism, threats are the individuals who might wage an attack against a specific target; vulnerabilities are the people and targets whose safety is contingent upon the effectiveness of security policies; and consequences are the possible negative outcomes from an attack. The intent of this paper is to use different risk and decision analysis techniques to assist in the policy making relative to assessing these three different components that define terrorism risk.;First, a methodology is described for representing terrorist leader preferences for alternative attack strategies against the U.S. A multi-attribute utility model embedded within a Risk simulation model was developed to characterize terrorist motivations and values. Ultimately, relative likelihood of a terrorist attack is determined as a function of the terrorists' attack utility. While the model's outputs are mostly illustrative of the methodology used, the policy implications of the approach are considered.;Next, the threat of attacks on the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is analyzed. Terrorists are assumed to be using a radiological dispersal device (RDD, also known as a "dirty bomb") to shut down port operations and cause substantial economic and psychological impacts. The analysis is an exploratory investigation of a combination of several risk analysis tools, including scenario generation and pruning, project risk analysis, direct consequence modeling, and indirect economic impact assessment. The implications for countering a dirty bomb, including the protection of the radiological sources and intercepting an ongoing dirty bomb attack, are discussed.;Lastly, a compilation of three studies were conducted to assess how individuals perceive the risks of terrorism. The psychometric paradigm is employed to evaluate the influence of various predictor variables, both cognitive and emotional, on this calculation. Results describing the findings' policy implications on preparedness and response efforts, such as what efforts are needed to keep people educated about terrorism and how that information should be directed, are included.
机译：风险的特征在于潜在威胁，对威胁的脆弱性以及后果是要执行的威胁。在恐怖主义的背景下，威胁是可能对特定目标发动攻击的个人。漏洞是指人员和目标，其安全取决于安全策略的有效性；结果是攻击可能带来的负面结果。本文的目的是使用不同的风险和决策分析技术来协助制定与评估恐怖主义风险的这三个不同组成部分相关的决策。首先，描述一种方法来代表恐怖分子领导人偏好针对恐怖分子的替代攻击策略美国开发了嵌入风险模拟模型中的多属性效用模型，以描述恐怖分子的动机和价值。最终，恐怖袭击的相对可能性取决于恐怖袭击的效用。虽然模型的输出大部分是所使用方法的说明，但考虑了该方法的政策含义。接下来，分析了对洛杉矶和长滩港口袭击的威胁。假定恐怖分子正在使用放射散布设备（RDD，也称为“脏弹”）关闭港口作业并造成重大的经济和心理影响。该分析是对多种风险分析工具的组合的探索性调查，包括方案生成和修剪，项目风险分析，直接结果建模以及间接经济影响评估。讨论了对付肮脏炸弹的意义，包括保护放射源和拦截正在进行的肮脏炸弹袭击。最后，进行了三项研究的汇编，以评估个人如何看待恐怖主义的风险。心理计量范式用于评估各种预测变量（包括认知变量和情绪变量）对该计算的影响。包括描述调查结果对准备和响应工作的政策影响的结果，例如需要采取哪些措施使人们对恐怖主义有所了解，以及如何指导这些信息。

著录项

  • 作者

    Rosoff, Heather Beth.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Southern California.;

  • 授予单位 University of Southern California.;
  • 学科 Political Science Public Administration.
  • 学位 D.P.A.
  • 年度 2009
  • 页码 191 p.
  • 总页数 191
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 政治理论;
  • 关键词

  • 入库时间 2022-08-17 11:37:46

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