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Risk assessment in the upstream crude oil supply chain: Leveraging analytic hierarchy process.

机译：上游原油供应链中的风险评估：利用层次分析法。

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摘要

For an organization to be successful, an effective strategy is required, and if implemented appropriately the strategy will result in a sustainable competitive advantage. The importance of decision making in the oil industry is reflected in the magnitude and nature of the industry. Specific features of the oil industry supply chain, such as its longer chain, the complexity of its transportation system, its complex production and storage processes, etc., pose challenges to its effective management. Hence, understanding the risks, the risk sources, and their potential impacts on the oil industry's operations will be helpful in proposing a risk management model for the upstream oil supply chain.The risk-based model in this research uses a three-level analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a multiple-attribute decision-making technique, to underline the importance of risk analysis and risk management in the upstream crude oil supply chain. Level 1 represents the overall goal of risk management Level 2 is comprised of the various risk factors and Level 3 represents the alternative criteria of the decision maker as indicated on the hierarchical structure of the crude oil supply chain. Several risk management experts from different oil companies around the world were surveyed, and six major types of supply chain risks were identified: (1) exploration and production, (2) environmental and regulatory compliance, (3) transportation, (4) availability of oil, (5) geopolitical, and (6) reputational.Also identified are the preferred methods of managing risks which include (1) accept and control the risks, (2) avoid the risk by stopping the activity, or (3) transfer or share the risks to other companies or insurers. The results from the survey indicate that the most important risk to manage is transportation risk with a priority of .263, followed by exploration/production with priority of .198, with an overall inconsistency of .03.With respect to major objectives the most preferred risk management policy option based on the result of the composite score is accept and control risk with a priority of .446, followed by transfer or share risk with a priority of .303. The least likely option is to terminate or forgo activity with a priority of .251.
机译：为了使组织成功，就需要有效的战略，如果实施得当，该战略将带来可持续的竞争优势。石油行业决策的重要性体现在该行业的规模和性质上。石油工业供应链的特定特征，例如其较长的链，其运输系统的复杂性，其复杂的生产和存储过程等，对其有效的管理构成了挑战。因此，了解风险，风险来源及其对石油行业运营的潜在影响将有助于提出上游石油供应链的风险管理模型。本研究中基于风险的模型使用了三级分析层次过程（AHP）是一种多属性决策技术，旨在强调风险分析和风险管理在上游原油供应链中的重要性。等级1代表风险管理的总体目标等级2由各种风险因素组成，等级3代表原油供应链层次结构中指示的决策者的替代标准。对来自全球不同石油公司的几位风险管理专家进行了调查，发现了六种主要的供应链风险：（1）勘探和生产，（2）环境和法规遵从，（3）运输，（4）石油，（5）地缘政治和（6）名誉。还确定了管理风险的首选方法，包括（1）接受和控制风险，（2）通过停止活动来避免风险，或（3）转移或与其他公司或保险公司分担风险。调查结果表明，要管理的最重要风险是运输风险，优先级为.263，其次是勘探/生产，优先级为.198，总体不一致性为.03。基于综合评分结果的风险管理策略选项是接受和控制风险，优先级为.446，其次是转移或分担风险，优先级为.303。最不可能的选择是终止或放弃以.251为优先级的活动。

著录项

  • 作者

    Briggs, Charles Awoala.;

  • 作者单位

    North Dakota State University.;

  • 授予单位 North Dakota State University.;
  • 学科 Business Administration Management.Transportation.Energy.Operations Research.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2010
  • 页码 225 p.
  • 总页数 225
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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