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The validity of the Iowa Sex Offender Risk Assessment for predicting recidivism in female sexual offenders

机译：爱荷华州性犯罪者风险评估在预测女性性犯罪者再犯中的有效性

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摘要

The purpose of this study was to determine the validity of the Iowa Sex Offender Risk Assessment (ISORA) instrument used in the Iowa Department of Corrections to assess for future occurrences of female offender recidivism. Using a sample of 105 females convicted of a sexual offense in the State of Iowa, the current study examined rates of recidivism using the ISORA. The goal of this study was to determine the validity of the ISORA in predicting recidivism rates as measured by (a) new convictions for sex offenses and other violent crimes, (b) new convictions for sex crimes using a strict definition, and (c) any new conviction for any new crime. Data were collected on all female participants in this study using case file information from various database resources. Mean-cost rating scores and Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve analyses were conducted to explore the relationships between risk assessment categories on the ISORA and each type of recidivism as well as between raw ISORA scores and each type of recidivism. Results showed the overall recidivism rate of female offenders was 22% for this study, while the sexual recidivism rate in this study was 2%. Results also provided evidence that the ISORA can be used to predict sexual and violent recidivism (AUC = .85) as well as general recidivism (AUC = .64) for female sex offenders. In conclusion, the ISORA is a valid risk assessment tool when predicting general and sexual or violent recidivism for female sexual offenders. However, further research examining improvements in the instrument could be conducted to enhance the validity of the instrument.
机译：这项研究的目的是确定在爱荷华州惩教局使用的爱荷华州性犯罪者风险评估（ISORA）仪器的有效性，以评估未来发生的女性罪犯累犯事件。在爱荷华州，使用105名因性犯罪而被定罪的女性样本，当前的研究使用ISORA检查了累犯率。这项研究的目的是确定ISORA在预测累犯率方面的有效性，该率可以通过以下方式衡量：（a）对性犯罪和其他暴力犯罪的新定罪，（b）使用严格定义对性犯罪的新定罪，以及（c）任何新罪行的新信念。使用来自各种数据库资源的案例文件信息收集了本研究中所有女性参与者的数据。进行了平均成本等级评分和接收者操作特征曲线分析，以探讨ISORA和每种累犯类型之间的风险评估类别之间以及原始ISORA评分和每种累犯类型之间的关系。结果显示，本研究中女性罪犯的整体累犯率是22％，而本研究中的性累犯率是2％。结果还提供了证据，表明ISORA可用于预测女性性罪犯的性和暴力再犯（AUC = .85）以及一般再犯（AUC = .64）。总之，在预测女性性罪犯的一般和性或暴力再犯时，ISORA是有效的风险评估工具。但是，可以进行进一步研究以检查仪器的改进，以提高仪器的有效性。

著录项

  • 作者

    McGinnis, Wendy J.;

  • 作者单位

    The University of Iowa.;

  • 授予单位 The University of Iowa.;
  • 学科 Behavioral psychology.;Womens studies.;Criminology.;Clinical psychology.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2015
  • 页码 138 p.
  • 总页数 138
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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