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Effect of water quality model uncertainty on the Passaic Total Maximum Daily Load and water quality trading program for total phosphorus.

机译：水质模型不确定性对Passaic总最大日负荷和总磷水质交易程序的影响。

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摘要

Water quality modeling is a major source of scientific uncertainty in the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) process. The effects of these uncertainties extend to water quality trading programs designed to implement TMDLs. This is the first study to examine the effects of water quality model uncertainty on a nutrient trading program. The method introduced in this study involved application of simple statistical tools to assess the credibility of the uncertainty analysis when compared to observed data. The method's efficiency and practicality directly address a main obstacle that has hindered a wider practice of uncertainty analyses of water quality models.;This study identified how water quality model uncertainty affects outcomes related to the Non-Tidal Passaic River Basin TMDL for total phosphorus (TP) and potential trades of TP between wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). The TMDL margin of safety was found to be sufficient with respect to attaining dissolved oxygen (DO) surface water quality standards at Dundee Lake, and achieving a 70% reduction in diverted TP load from the Wanaque South intake to the Wanaque Reservoir. Although the TMDL scenario showed greater than 10% probability of exceeding the target for chlorophyll-a (chl- a) at Dundee Lake, the efficacy of TMDL measures was clearly demonstrated when compared directly to actual conditions in the critical drought period of Water Year 2002. The uncertainty analysis found no evidence to suggest that the outcome of trades between WWTPs, as compared with command and control regulation, will significantly increase uncertainty in the attainment of DO surface water quality standards, site-specific chl-a criteria, and reduction targets for diverted TP load at affected potential hot spots in the watershed. Each simulated trading scenario demonstrated parity with or improvement from the baseline at the TMDL critical locations and low risk of hot spots elsewhere.;Finally, research on risk communication techniques was synthesized to help the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection in its future public participation efforts on the Passaic water quality trading program. A strategy based on the principles of 'outrage management' was outlined for conducting a public meeting.
机译：水质建模是总最大日负荷（TMDL）过程中科学不确定性的主要来源。这些不确定性的影响扩展到旨在实施TMDL的水质贸易计划。这是研究水质模型不确定性对养分交易计划影响的第一项研究。本研究中介绍的方法涉及简单统计工具的应用，以与观察数据进行比较来评估不确定性分析的可信度。该方法的效率和实用性直接解决了一个主要障碍，该障碍已阻碍了水质模型不确定性分析的广泛实践。这项研究确定了水质模型不确定性如何影响与非潮汐Passaic流域TMDL总磷（TP）相关的结果）以及废水处理厂（WWTP）之间的TP潜在交易。发现TMDL的安全裕度足以达到邓迪湖的溶解氧（DO）地表水水质标准，并使从Wanaque South进水口到Wanaque水库的TP负荷减少70％。尽管TMDL情景显示邓迪湖超出叶绿素-a（chl-a）目标的可能性大于10％，但与2002水年关键干旱时期的实际情况直接比较时，TMDL措施的功效得到了明确证明。不确定性分析发现，没有证据表明与指令和控制法规相比，污水处理厂之间的交易结果将大大增加DO地表水水质标准，特定地点的chl-a标准和减排目标的实现的不确定性在分水岭中受影响的潜在热点转移了总磷负荷。每个模拟交易场景均显示与TMDL关键位置的基准水平相当或有所改善，并且其他地方的热点风险较低。最后，综合了风险交流技术的研究，以帮助新泽西州环境保护局未来的公众参与工作在Passaic水质交易计划上。概述了基于“暴动管理”原则的战略，以进行公开会议。

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  • 作者

    Kardos, Josef Sy.;

  • 作者单位

    Rutgers The State University of New Jersey - New Brunswick.;

  • 授予单位 Rutgers The State University of New Jersey - New Brunswick.;
  • 学科 Water Resource Management.;Environmental Sciences.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2009
  • 页码 136 p.
  • 总页数 136
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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