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首页> 外文学位 >Has there been a great risk shift? Trends in economic instability among working-age adults.
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Has there been a great risk shift? Trends in economic instability among working-age adults.

机译：是否发生了重大的风险转移？适龄成年人经济不稳定的趋势。

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A number of researchers---most prominently, political scientist Jacob Hacker---have argued that economic risk has shifted in recent years to workers and families from employers and government. This "great risk shift" has led to a "new economic insecurity" that demands new policy responses from government. Hacker's primary evidence in support of his argument was a chart indicating that family income volatility had risen 200 percent from 1974 to 2002, later revised to 100 percent in response to methodological problems I discovered. These results were the latest in a long line of research on economic instability and inspired a wave of subsequent research. Most of these studies have relied on the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and have reached conclusions that differ from findings based on administrative data.;This dissertation finds that when several crucial methodological issues are addressed correctly, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics yields the same conclusions as the research using administrative data. Contrary to the risk-shift hypothesis, male earnings instability and family income instability did not rise much between the early 1980s and 2004, across a range of different instability measures. Female earnings instability fell between the late 1960s and the early 1980s and then was flat or continued declining. Other indicators of economic risk and insecurity also fail to support the risk-shift hypothesis.
机译：许多研究人员-最著名的是政治学家雅各布·哈克（Jacob Hacker）-辩称，近年来，经济风险已经从雇主和政府转移到工人和家庭。这种“巨大的风险转移”导致了“新的经济不安全”，需要政府采取新的政策应对措施。黑客支持他论点的主要证据是一张图表，该图表表明，从1974年到2002年，家庭收入的波动性增加了200％，后来由于我发现的方法问题而修正为100％。这些结果是有关经济不稳定的长期研究的最新成果，并激发了随后的研究浪潮。这些研究大多数依赖于收入动态专题研究，并得出与基于行政数据得出的结论不同的结论。本论文发现，当正确解决了几个关键的方法学问题时，收入动态专题研究得出了相同的结论。作为使用行政数据的研究。与风险转移假说相反，在一系列不同的不稳定措施中，男性收入不稳定和家庭收入不稳定在1980年代初期至2004年之间并没有增加太多。女性收入的不稳定性在1960年代末至1980年代初之间下降，然后持平或持续下降。经济风险和不安全感的其他指标也无法支持风险转移假说。

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