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The employment of older workers.

机译：雇用年长工人。

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摘要

This thesis focuses on the employment of older workers and addresses the following questions: how people make their retirement decision, how changes in the Social Security benefit rules can encourage older workers to stay in the labor force longer, and what impediments older workers face on the labor market that can prevent them from working longer and interrupt their retirement plans. As the U.S. population ages, retirement and Social Security claiming decisions of older workers will have a significant impact on the U.S. economy. By the year of 2030 about 20 percent of the population will be 65 years old or older. The national retirement system generates less income in retirement than it did in the past. Rising Full Retirement Age, the shift of the private pension system from predominantly defined benefit to predominantly defined contribution pension plans, and increasing longevity will have to force older workers to stay in the labor force in the future to provide adequate income in retirement.;Chapter one presents a dynamic stochastic retirement model that incorporates observed heterogeneity in educational attainment level. The assumption is that educational attainment level is highly correlated with the characteristics, such as preferences for work, types of jobs, and financial planning horizon that determine timing of retirement. A parsimonious model that incorporates heterogeneity in educational attainment level and stochastic earnings and health predicts the labor force participation rates and Social Security rates by age accurately. This model provides intuition for why college graduates tend to claim Social Security benefits and exit labor force later in life longer life expectancy, non-physically demanding jobs, longer financial planning horizon, and deriving positive utility from work encourage college graduates to retire later.;Chapter two develops and tests a policy rule regarding the availability of reduced early Social Security retirement benefits that would encourage older workers to stay in the labor force longer without amplifying the hardship on the more vulnerable population. The availability of Social Security retirement benefits at the current Earliest Eligibility Age (EEA) is considered the main impediment to longer working lives. Raising the EEA is thus considered the most powerful channel to raise the labor force participation rate. But raising the EEA would create hardship among workers with low private savings who are unable to work or find employment until the higher eligibility age. This study proposes and analyzes a new approach to setting each worker's EEA based on an individual's average lifetime earningsan Elastic EEA. Low average lifetime earnings will likely reflect either poor health or spotty work histories, both of which are associated with weak employment prospects and limited financial resources at age 62. Tying the EEA to the average lifetime earnings could thus protect many of these vulnerable workers while encouraging longer working lives and increasing Social Security monthly benefits for workers more capable of remaining in the labor force. Simulations suggest that an Elastic EEA would achieve its goal in providing higher employment rates and levels of consumption in retirement compared to the status quo. These simulations also demonstrate the limitations of structural retirement models used to estimate the effect of raising the EEA. By assuming the same probabilities of losing and finding a job for all individuals, these models underestimate the adverse effect of raising the EEA on the more vulnerable population.;Although some older workers may like to stay longer in the labor force, they may have hard time holding on to their jobs due to displacement. Chapter three is devoted to the trends in displacement of older workers. Conventional wisdom says older workers are less likely to be displaced. However, the difference in displacement rates between younger and older workers disappeared in the 2006 Displaced Worker Survey (DWS). The increased vulnerability of older workers appears to be the reason for this convergence. To better understand the age-displacement relationship, this study takes advantage of the availability of job tenure information and consistent design of the DWS since 1996. Using a Blinder--Oaxaca decomposition, it analyzes the effect of changes in tenure, industry mix, and educational attainment on the displacement rates of younger and older workers. The results show that older workers are now more likely to be displaced than prime-age workers, conditional on education, manufacturing industry, and tenure.
机译：本论文着重讨论老年工人的就业问题，并提出以下问题：人们如何做出退休决定，社会保障福利规则的变化如何鼓励老年工人留在劳动力中的时间更长，以及老年工人在社会上面临的障碍劳动力市场可能会阻止他们更长的工作时间并中断退休计划。随着美国人口的老龄化，退休和社会保障要求老年工人做出决定将对美国经济产生重大影响。到2030年，大约20％的人口将年满65岁。国家退休制度产生的退休收入比过去少。完全退休年龄的提高，私人养老金系统从主要定义的福利向主要定义的缴费型养老金计划的转变以及寿命的延长，将不得不迫使老年工人将来留在劳动力中以提供足够的退休收入。一个提出了一种动态的随机退休模型，该模型在教育程度上纳入了观察到的异质性。假定教育程度与这些特征高度相关，例如决定退休时间的工作偏好，工作类型和财务计划范围。将教育程度，异质性和健康状况纳入异质性的简约模型可以准确预测按年龄划分的劳动力参与率和社会保障率。这种模式提供了一种直觉，说明了为什么大学毕业生倾向于索取社会保障福利，并在以后的寿命较长的预期寿命，非生理要求的工作，更长的财务计划范围以及从工作中获得积极效用的退休劳动力鼓励大学毕业生退休。第二章制定并测试了关于减少的早期社会保障退休福利的可获得性的政策规则，该规则将鼓励老年工人在劳动力市场中停留更长的时间，而不会加剧较脆弱人群的困苦。在目前的最早资格年龄（EEA）可获得社会保障退休福利被认为是延长工作寿命的主要障碍。因此，提高EEA被认为是提高劳动力参与率的最有力途径。但是提高EEA会给私人储蓄较低的工人带来困难，这些工人直到较高的适龄年龄才能工作或找到工作。这项研究提出并分析了一种基于个人平均终生收入和弹性EEA设定每个工人的EEA的新方法。平均终生收入低可能反映出健康状况不佳或工作经历参差不齐，这两者都与就业前景不佳以及62岁时的财务资源有限有关。将EEA与平均终生收入挂钩可以在保护许多弱势工人的同时鼓励更长的工作寿命和增加的社会保障每月津贴，使更多有能力留在劳动力队伍中的工人受益。模拟表明，与现状相比，弹性EEA将实现其更高的就业率和退休消费水平的目标。这些模拟还证明了用于估计提高EEA效果的结构淘汰模型的局限性。通过假设所有人都有失去工作的可能性，这些模型低估了提高EEA对较弱势人群的不利影响。尽管一些年长的工人可能希望在劳动力中停留更长的时间，但他们可能很难由于流离失所而继续工作。第三章专门介绍老年工人的流离失所趋势。传统观点认为，年长的工人流离失所的可能性较小。但是，在2006年流离失所工人调查（DWS）中，年轻工人和年长工人之间的流离失所率差异消失了。年长工人的脆弱性增加似乎是这种趋同的原因。为了更好地理解年龄与年龄的关系，本研究利用了自1996年以来工作任期信息的可获得性和DWS的一致设计。使用Blinder-Oaxaca分解法，分析了任期变化，行业结构和成本的影响。对年轻和年长工人的流离失所率的教育程度。结果显示，受教育，制造业和任期的限制，老年工人现在比流浪工人更容易流离失所。

著录项

  • 作者

    Zhivan, Natalia A.;

  • 作者单位

    Boston College.;

  • 授予单位 Boston College.;
  • 学科 Economics Labor.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2009
  • 页码 99 p.
  • 总页数 99
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 劳动经济;
  • 关键词

  • 入库时间 2022-08-17 11:38:26

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