Based on the statistical number from 1978 to 2012 ,and combined with minimum cropland acreage per capita(Smin) and Cropland pressure index(K) ,this paper analyzed the situation and development trend of cultivat-ed land and food security in Sichuan province,by using the GM(1,1)model to predict the food security trend of the next 6 years. The result showed that,from 1978 to 2012,the minimum cropland acreage per capita(Smin) in Si-chuan presenteda downtrend,food security was closely reliable on the increase of per unit area yield of grain,multi-ple-cropping index,and the cultivated land supply,and hence the cropland pressure index(K) didn't show a sig-nificant upward trend,the food security was still in control realizing the policy requirement of "overall balance,basic self-sufficiency". From 2015 to 2020,calculated by high,medium or low food consumption level scenarios,the urbanization,industrialization and food security remained in relative equilibrium. However,with the acceler-ated development of urbanization and industrialization,it showed a rise trend of cultivated land use pressure. There-fore,this paper put forward some recommendations,including to improve the resource utilization rate on the base of strictly protecting the quantity of cultivated land,to strengthen the construction of infrastructure and speed up the generalization and application of breakthrough new varieties and new technologies,to prevent and reduce the natural disasters scientifically,and to implement different policy according to regional disparity.%文章利用1978~2012年的统计数据,结合最小人均耕地面积(Smin)和耕地压力指数(K),分析了四川省耕地面积和粮食数量安全变化态势,并采用GM(1,1)模型对未来6年的粮食数量安全状况进行预测.结果表明:1978~2012年,四川省最小人均耕地面积呈下降趋势,但依赖于粮食单产增加,复种指数提高,以及耕地供给小幅增加,使得耕地压力指数K并未呈现出明显上升趋势,粮食数量处于可控的安全态势,实现了"总量平衡,基本自给"的政策要求.2015~2020年,无论按低方案(252.64 kg/人)、中方案(322.07 kg/人)和高方案(386.6 kg/人)粮食消费水平计算,城镇化、工业化和粮食数量安全依然维持在相对平衡状态,粮食数量安全处于可控的安全范围内.随着时间的推移,在城镇化深入发展和工业化加速推进的双重压力下,耕地压力指数有上升趋势.因此,该文提出了在严格保护耕地数量的基础上,提高资源的利用率;加大基础设施建设;加快突破性新品种、新技术推广应用;科学防灾减灾;针对市域差异,实施有差异化政策的建议.
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