以度日因子模型为基础,建立了一个简单的分布式模型,评估不同气候条件下托木尔型冰川融水径流的变化.模型分别考虑了冰雪、表碛、冰崖等复杂冰川下垫面的产流过程,并利用线性水库原理对冰川汇流进行参数化.结果显示,模型能够较好地对冰川融水径流进行模拟.敏感性分析表明,平均气温的变化对于融水径流有重要影响:当平均气温升高1℃时,融水径流将增加22.5％；而当气温升高2℃时,径流的增加幅度将达到45.0％.相反,当气温降低1℃和2℃时,融水径流分别减小20.6％和37.6％.比较而言,降水的变化对冰川融水径流的影响较小.%Based on the degree-day method, this paper established a simple distributed model to estimate the glacial runoff of a Tuomuer-type glacier. Considering the meltwater generations from snow, ice, debris-cover and ice-cliff of complex glacial underlying surface, the model demonstrates a robust capability to capture the glacial runoff variability. We set up a series of climatic conditions with changing surface air temperatures and precipitation to test the sensitivity of meltwater runoff to climate change. The results show that the changes in temperature yield great variations in meltwater runoff. A rising of 1 ℃ in temperature will lead to a runoff rising by 22.5%, while an increase of 2 ℃ will cause a meltwater discharge increase by 45.0%. On the contrary, a decline of temperatures by 1 ℃ and 2 ℃ will result in a runoff discharge dropping by 20.6% and 37.6%, respectively. Comparatively, changes in precipitation have weak influences on the glacial runoff.
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