By comprehensive consideration of future economic development and the production volume in major industries, the scenarios analysis model of mid-long term energy and electricity demand and carbon emission in China by "bottom-up" method was constructed. The primary energy, electricity demand, energy structure and carbon emission in 2015, 2020 and 2030 of three different circumstances were forecasted. The ratio of non-fossil energy and carbon emission intensity were measured and calculated. The results show that the primary energy demand in China could be raised to about 5 billion tons of standard coal, and the electricity demand could be raised to about 7.7 PW-h by 2020. If maximize the use of all kinds of clean energy, the carbon emission intensity in 2020 can be reduced more than 40%~45% of the carbon emission intensity in 2005, and the ratio of non-fossil energy consumption in primary energy consumption could be raised to 15% by 2020 in all the three economic development circumstances.%综合考虑未来经济发展和主要行业产品产量,对比国内外分行业能源强度和电力强度的变化,采用“自下而上”的方法构建了中国中长期能源、电力需求及碳排放情景分析模型.分3种情景对2015、2020、2030年的全国能源、电力需求与结构以及碳排放进行了分析,测算了非化石能源消费比例和碳排放强度.结果表明,2020年我国一次能源需求50亿t标准煤左右,全社会用电量7.7× 1012 kW·h左右；3种经济发展情景下,均能实现2020年碳排放量比2005年下降40％～45％的目标;在非化石能源开发达到规划上限的条件下,能够实现非化石能源消费占一次能源消费比重15％的目标.
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