本文根据对化石能源碳排放的数据监测与大量研究分析，结合有关国家的历史数据以及《世界能源中国展望》数据库，对环境库兹涅茨曲线（E K C）进行了定量检验与分析。通过国际比较发现，在碳排放与经济增长之间存在着诸多历史组合和发展关系。根据本文的分析框架，中国的EKC进入了一个重要的选择期，在今后5年或略长时期内有可能形成自身的特征与态势，即在保证适度经济增长的前提下，以较高的能效提升和较快的结构优化，在较低水平上形成中国的碳排放拐点，从而走出一条不同于若干发达国家经历的EKC。尽管中国的这一态势存在多种不确定性，但是这一新的EKC的形成对于中国和其他发展中国家具有重大意义。%In this paper, the authors conduct quantitative analysis on the EKC by employing a wealth of selected historic data from a set of western sources along with the World Energy China Outlook’s database. We concluded that there are closer ties between carbon emission and economic growth. Based on our analysis, China is repositioned at a new crossroad, which may lead the country towards a brand new future with its own characteristic and tendency in the next five years and beyond. Besides keeping moderate economic growth, the country can achieve its lower emission peak with higher improvement in efficiency and structural optimization. With these, the country could step out a new type of EKC differing from those developed countries witnessed. It is significant not only to China but many developing countries as well, although facing uncertainties.
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