本文通过计算广东省火电行业1995—2013年能源消耗与碳排放量，运用双对数回归方法，研究广东省火电行业碳排放的影响因素；通过设置6种经济发展与能源消耗情景，预测未来广东省火电行业碳排放量达峰年份与达峰排放量。研究发现，广东省火电行业碳排放量受生产总值、人口、第二产业占比、单产能耗、产值电耗和低碳政策的影响，其中低碳政策的强力实施能显著降低二氧化碳的排放量；同时在中增长和强减排的推荐情景下，碳排放量可最早于2022年达峰，最迟也将在2028年达峰。本文提出抓住新常态发展机遇，加强碳减排力度、鼓励发电技术创新等政策建议。%According to the calculation of energy consumption and carbon emission of thermal power industry in Guangdong province from 1995 to 2013, we use double logarithm regression method to analyze factors affecting the emission of Guangdong thermal power industry. Through setting up six economic development and energy consumption scenarios, it predicts the peak year and peak amount of CO2 emissions of Guangdong thermal power industry. The research shows that CO2 emissions will be influenced by GDP, population, manufacture ratio, energy consumption of per output, power consumption of output value and low carbon policy. In which, low carbon policies can significantly reduce CO2 emissions. At the same time, in the recommended scenario of middle growth and strong emission reduction, carbon emissions can touch the peak as early as 2022, or no later than 2028. The paper proposes to seize the chance of new normal development, strengthen carbon emission reduction efforts, and encourage technological innovation and other policy recommendations.
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