针对传统的故障树（FAT）可靠性分析方法，提出了一种基于模糊概率与贝叶斯网络（BN）相结合的分析方法。文中的BN模型通过FAT模型得到，根据专家综合评定BN模型中每一个根节点的语言变量，得出每一个根节点发生故障的精确概率。通过BN模型的正逆互推原理算出每一个叶节点的失效概率和每一个根节点的后验失效概率，进一步进行每个根节点重要度分析。最后通过该方法对桥式起重机用制动器的可靠性分析，发现其具有很高的分析效率。%In view of the reliability analysis method of traditional fault tree , the paper puts forward the analysis meth-od combining the fuzzy probability with bayesian network .BN model in the paper is get from FAT model , and comprehen-sive evaluation for the language variable for each root node in BN model is performed by experts , in order to figure out the precision probability of fault occurrence of each root node .Through positive-negative reasoning principle , the failure proba-bility for each leaf node and posterior failure probability for each root node are worked out , with further analysis of impor-tance of each root node .The method is used to perform reliability analysis for the brake of the bridge crane , showing very high analysis efficiency .
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