This paper intends to obtain the evolution probability of combustion - explosion accidents which occur in flammable liquid hazardous chemical roadway transportation .For the said research purpose ,746 related accidents were sta-tistically analyzed in order to master the general features and laws of such incidents based on the time ,roads ,types and haz-ardous chemicals of the accidents .According to the variance coefficient method ,the index weights were calculated after they had been quantized and standardized .Based on the comprehensive influencing intensity of multi factor coupling in the acci-dent on the evolution of combustion or explosion ,the final evolution probability is obtained .The risk thresholds of the proba-bility under different conditions were evaluated combined with the quality control method .%为了分析不同情况下的易燃液态危化品道路运输事故演化为火灾、爆炸事故的可能性，统计了近年来746起相关事故，对事故发生时间、道路、初发事故形式、运载危化品燃爆危险性及事故演化情况进行总结，利用变异系数法得出量化后的评价指标权重，通过事故过程中多因素耦合对燃爆演化率的综合影响强度计算其燃爆演化概率，结合质量控制法划分该类事故的高、低事故率阈值，评价燃爆演化概率危险水平。
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