As a kind of special disaster which is widely distributed in periglacial environment,the talus slope is characterized by poor stability,high burst and strong recurrence,thus it is prone to lose stability.Based on the field investigation to talus slopes in the northern piedmont of Tian-Shan mountain,the relationship between the spatial distribution characteristics and the influencing factors is statistically analyzed.3 types of evaluation indexes of geological environment,internal and external force and human engineering activity are choosed and index weights are quantified based on AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to establish susceptibility evaluation model of talus slope.The main results of this research can be summarized as follows.(1) Talus slopes are mostly distributed in periglacial environment at the altitude of 1600 ～2500m,hard rock like basalt and sand slate,fragment and subblock structure,shady slope and semi-shady slope;(2) Altitude,freeze thaw weathering action and lithology are main factors which affect the susceptibility of talus slope;(3) The results of the example show that the susceptibility evaluation model of talus slope has good applicability and accuracy.%溜砂坡为一种广泛发育于冰缘环境的特殊灾害,具有自稳性差、突发性高、复发性强等特点,容易失稳产生危害.通过对天山北麓溜砂坡发育规律与影响因素的关系进行统计分析,选取地质环境条件、内外营力作用及人类工程活动等3类评价指标,采用AHP-模糊综合评价法对指标权重定量,建立溜砂坡易发性评价模型.研究结果表明:①溜砂坡主要分布于海拔1600～2500m的冰缘斜坡环境、玄武岩及砂板岩等硬岩、碎块及次块状坡体结构、阴坡或半阴坡中;②海拔和冻融风化作用是影响溜砂坡易发性最主要的两个因素,其次是地层岩性;③实例分析结果显示,溜砂坡易发性评价模型具有较好的适用性和准确性.
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