本文在多变量VAR模型基础上，运用协整分析和ECM方法发现，从长期来看，增加教育支出能促进各个地区的经济增长，但是提高人力资本存量促进经济发展的举措并不能推而广之；从短期表现出的动态关系看，GDP会受到自身与教育支出、人力资本存量滞后期的影响，其中滞后1期的经济变化对当期均具有正向作用，说明地区经济增长具有一定的内生增长机制。但是滞后2期、3期的经济增长对当期的影响在不同地区有不同的表现。方差分解结果表明，在东部沿海、中部和西部地区，教育支出是影响GDP最重要的因素。而在东北地区，教育支出与人力资本存量则扮演着几乎同等作用的角色。%Based on the multivariable VAR model, We uses cointegration analysis found that, in the long run, education spending increased can promote regional economic and ECM method, and growth , but human cap- ital stock improving maybe not promote economic development; From the dynamic relationship performed in the short term, GDP will be affected by their own, education expenditure, and human capital stock. Among them e- conomic change of Lag phase 1 have the positive effect on the current period, and indicate that regional economic growth has certain endogenous growth mechanism. But lag phase 2, 3 of economic growth have different influence on current period in different areas. Variance decomposition results show that, education spending is the most im- portant factor to affect GDP in the eastern coastal, central and western region, but in the northeast, education spending and human capital stock almost play the same role.
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