首页> 中文期刊> 《生态与农村环境学报》 >基于CA-Markov模型的挠力河流域土地利用动态模拟

基于CA-Markov模型的挠力河流域土地利用动态模拟

         

摘要

Based on the Landsat TM/ETM remote sensing image data of 1990 and 2013 of the Naoli River Valley in the heart of the Sanjiang Plain, the land use dynamics model and land use intensity model were used in combination with the Markov transfer matrix to analyze changes in land use during the period of 1990-2013 and the CA⁃Markov model was to simulate and predict land use pattern in the Naoli River Valley in 2025. Results show that the changes in land use structure was mainly dominated by conversion of farmland from paddy to upland or vice versa and alienation of farmlands and recla⁃mation of wastelands. The conversion of upland to paddy was the main feature of the changes in landscape. Reclamation of unused land led to substantial reduction of wasteland in area. The land use intensity index of the valley rose from 251�46 in 1990 to 270�48 in 2013, which indicates that land use increased steadily in exploitation degree in the Naoli River Valley. The simulation using the models demonstrates that the Kappa coefficient of the valley was 0�82, indicating that the predic⁃tion was reliable. The variation of land use types in the valley in 2013-2025 may differ from that in 1990-2013 in trend and rate. The change in woodlands will be the widest in range and the area of paddy fields will keep on rising, but at a de⁃clining rate with the single dynamic degree falling down to 2%;The area of upland will stay almost unchanged. The land use intensity index will continue rising and the valley will continue to be disturbed by human activities with rising intensity during the period from 2013 to 2025.%以三江平原腹地挠力河流域为研究对象,基于1990和2013年2期遥感数据,结合马尔科夫( Markov)转移矩阵、土地利用动态度模型和土地利用程度模型分析流域1990—2013年土地利用变化情况,运用CA⁃Markov模型对2025年土地利用格局进行模拟预测。结果表明:流域土地利用结构变化以耕地的内部和外部转换为主,水田化现象是最主要的景观变化特征,未利用地面积由于大量垦荒而大幅度减少;土地利用程度指数由1990年的251�46上升至2013年的270�48,土地开发利用程度不断加大;模型模拟显示流域Kappa系数为0�82,预测结果可信;2013—2025年流域土地利用类型变化趋势和速率与1990—2013年存在差异,林地变化幅度最大,水田面积仍然保持增长,但增长速度有所下降,单一动态度降为2%,旱地面积基本保持不变;未来12 a土地利用程度指数持续上升,流域受人类社会因素扰动作用的强度将会进一步加大。

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