中国经济进入新常态后，未来增长的前景如何普遍受到关注。有一个流行的观点：一个经济国家经济基数或规模大了，经济增长率就必然会下降。为此通过采用178个经济体数据对此进行了检验，发现GDP和增长率的相关度很低，因此这一看似合理的观点并经不起数据的检验，并妨害对经济增长率下降做正确的分析和判断。对中国经济增长潜力的市场分析发现，依当下中国和发达国家人均收入的巨大差距，还存在巨大经济增长潜力，在近期房地产是重要的经济增长点。经济增长及增长潜力的政治经济学分析强调，基于一个经济社会的政治结构，阶级、利益集团的力量对比及相互作用，对收入及由收入决定的消费进行分析和评价，由此分析和解释一个经济社会经济增长及增长潜力，并提出改革社会制度的方向。%Since Chinese economy entered the stage of the new normal, the future growth prospect has attracted a lot of attention. There is the popular viewpoint that the economic cardinal number or scale becoming bigger, the economic growth rate will inevitably decrease. The paper uses the date of 178 economies regarding the relevancy between GDP and growth rate is very low, suggesting that this popular viewpoint can't stand for the test, and will hinder right analysis and judgment regarding the future economic growth. The analysis on the potential of Chinese economic growth based on the market suggests that there is large potential of economic growth based on the big market of China, given the huge per capita income gap between China and the developed countries. The real estate could be a hot point of economic growth in the near future. The analysis of political economy on economic growth and the growth potential emphasizes the analysis and evaluation on income and consumption determined by the income, based on the political structure, the balance of power of classes and interest groups, and their interactions, from which economic growth and the growth potential are analyzed and explained, and the direction of the reform of political system is put forward.
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