基于马尔科夫链预测理论,分析研究了系统安全态势的定性与定量预测问题,建立了系统安全态势预测模型.定性预测侧重安全态势的升、降趋势分析,定量预测以系统万人死亡率为依据,划分四个安全状态,从而实现系统安全状态定量预测.定性与定量预测相互检验、相互补充.实例研究表明,马尔科夫定性与定量相结合的预测模型结构简单,计算方便,符合系统安全态势预测特征要求,是系统安全宏观管理的重要参考依据之一.%Based on Markov chain forecast theory, qualitative and quantitative forecast problem of system security situation were analyzed, and the system security situation forecast model was established. Qualitative forecast focused on the rising and falling trend of the security situation. While based on death rate persons/10 thousand , system security situation was divided into four security states to achieve quantitative forecast of system security state. Qualitative and quantitative forecast could get fine mutual verification and supplement. Qualitative forecast of Markov only could analyze the trend of system security situation, but could not show surely the scope of system security situation index. On the contrary, quantitative forecast could get the specific scope of system security situation index but could not get the case of the rising and falling trend of system security. If the two side could be combined, the result of forecasting would be tested each other, and the result would be more accurate. Case studies showed that the forecast model built by combination of qualitative and Markov quantitative forecast was not only simple in structure and easy to calculate, but also accorded with characteristic demand of the security situation forecast of system, which could be considered as an important reference in macro-management of system security.
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