针对影响航空公司飞机运行安全的风险因子具有关联性及因果性的特点,从人、机、环、管四方面分析影响航空公司飞机安全运行的风险因子,由专家及航空公司运行人员对风险因子两两之间的相关性及因果性进行判断,结合图论中的方法构建风险因子的邻接矩阵,并利用MATLAB仿真软件构建邻接矩阵的可达矩阵,然后对可达矩阵进行分解并将风险因子分为5个层次,构成一个多级递阶的网络模型,明确不同层次中的风险因子及其因果关联影响,揭示风险因子交互作用的内在规律.结果表明,网络结构模型具有良好因果关系及层次,说明只有通过系统安全管理手段避免风险因子之间的交互作用才能更加有效控制风险的发生.%According to the features of relevance and causality for the risk factors which affects the airline aircraft operation safety, the risk factors were analyzed from four aspects of human, machine, environment and management, which affected the airline aircraft operation safety. The relevance and causality between any two risk factors were judged by the civil aviation experts and airlines operating staff, and then the methods of graph theory were applied to build the adjacency matrix of risk factors and MATLAB simulation software was used to build the reachability matrix of the adjacency matrix, then the reachability matrix was decomposed and the risk factors were divided into five levels to form a multi-level hierarchical network model, in order to definitude different levels of risk factors and causal correlation effect, and to reveal the inherent laws of interaction risk factors. The results indicated that the network structural model could change indistinct relationship into intuitive model which has good causality and hierarchical structure, the evaluation of risk is also more objective, that shows only all the departments and the stuff of the airlines work together, and use system safety management means to avoid the interaction influence of risk factors could control the risk which affects the airline aircraft operation safety more effective.
展开▼
