为保障海上通道安全,针对海上通道安全的影响因素较多且相互关联的特点,提出一种考虑耦合效应的海上通道风险因素识别方法.将二元语义应用到专家问卷的语言评价信息,并将2-可加模糊测度扩展到二元语义环境,完成对所有风险因素的识别分析.案例分析结果为:在中欧海上通道风险因素中,对单风险因素进行分析后得出影响最大的两个因素是气象水文海况和海上犯罪威胁,对任意两个因素之间的耦合效应进行分析后得出耦合效应最强的两组风险因素是气象水文海况和通航地理条件以及气象水文海况和通道船舶密度.%In order to ensure the safety of sea lanes,considering that the influencing factors of sea lane safety are multiple and interrelated,an identification method of risk factors is proposed,where the coupling effect among risk factors is considered.The linguistic assessment information given by experts is converted into 2-tuple linguistic representation,the 2-additive fuzzy measure operator is extended to 2-tuple linguistic representation,and the identification analysis of all risk factors is completed.The case study results are the following:in all risk factors in China-Europe sea lane,the analysis on each risk factor shows that the two most influential factors are the meteorological and hydrological condition and the threat of maritime crime,and the analysis on coupling effect between any two factors shows that the two groups of risk factors with the strongest coupling effect are the meteorological and hydrological condition with the navigable geographical condition,and the meteorological and hydrological condition with the ship density of sea lanes.
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