In light of the carbon footprint of mechanical and electronic products,based on the life cycle,a new carbon foot-print analysis model was established,the product system boundary was determined,and the inventory data at each stage of the life cycle was collected and analyzed.A carbon footprint calculation model was then set up.Gabi software was applied to calculating the carbon footprint of the product.Through the establishment of model sensitivity analysis,the influencing fac-tors of the sensitivity of the product's carbon footprint was calculated and the key factors were extracted.AHP-probability distribution uncertainty analysis method was proposed,thereby determining and quantifying the uncertainty due to the input data,and optimizing the data collection scheme.Therefore,the method can reflect the whole life cycle of the carbon foot-print of the real product and give some guidance to the follow-up low carbon design with feedback.Finally,the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method were verified by the example of a transformer.%从机电产品碳足迹分布出发,基于全生命周期,建立产品碳足迹分析模型,确定产品系统边界,对生命周期各阶段的清单数据进行收集与分析,建立碳足迹计算模型,应用Gabi软件对产品碳足迹进行核算.通过建立敏感性分析模型,对影响产品碳足迹因素的敏感度进行分析计算,提取关键影响因素;提出层次分析与概率分布(AHP-probability distribution,AHP-PD)不确定性分析方法,判断和量化输入数据所产生的不确定性,优化数据收集方案,从而真实地反映全生命周期产品碳足迹分布,反馈指导后续低碳设计.最后以变压器为例,验证了该方法的可行性与有效性.
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