Recently,a new generation of seismic performance evaluation method based on the total probability theory has been greatly developped in advanced countries and has been used in the evaluation of some specific buildings.The new seismic performance evaluation method is more scientific and reasonable than the existing methods,and is of good theoretical significance and practical value to mitigate the earthquake disaster and improve the seismic performance of structures.Based on the framework of seismic performance evaluation process in the FEMA P-58 and considering the characteristics of China's building structures and specification requirements,the total probability evaluation idea was introduced and adopted in the seismic performance evaluation of an individual building.The vulnerability of the building was analyzed and evaluated using the incremental dynamic analysis (IDA)method with the finite element analysis software PERFORM 3D and seismic performance assessment analysis software PACT.Using intensity-based assessment methods,the building performance probability distributions with respect to the casualties,restoration and reconstruction cost and break period were achieved according to the component fragility performance grouping and population model.%近几年来,在一些发达国家,基于概率理论的新一代抗震性能评估方法已开始用于特定建筑物的抗震性能评估.研究基于全概率理论的新一代抗震性能评估方法,并将其应用于我国建筑结构的抗震性能评估,对于减灾防灾和提高建筑结构的抗震性能有重要意义.以FEMA P-58的抗震性能评估流程为框架,结合我国建筑结构的特点和规范要求,以某一单个建筑物为对象,采用有限元分析软件PERFORM 3D和抗震经济性能评估分析软件PACT,用增量动力分析(IDA)方法进行建筑物各个强度状态的易损性分析;用基于强度的性能评估方法,依据构件易损性分组和人员流动模型,得到包括人员伤亡、修复和重建造价以及居住中断时间等建筑性能的概率分布,为我国建筑结构的抗震性能评估提供了参考.
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