为了分析风险投资估值调整协议的合理应用对于风险投资活动的重要意义.本文以蒙牛与大摩等投资机构签订的估值调整协议为现实背景,凝练出了估值调整协议的特点:规避风险、达到双赢是估值调整协议的目标;不确定性是估值调整协议的基础;绩效考核是约束手段、股权是激励筹码;合理估值是实现双赢的必备条件.基于上述特点,本文构建了估值调整协议的实物期权模型,证明给出估值调整协议的实物期权价值及双赢后风险投资主体退出的最佳时机解析解,并通过算例进行了验证,最后得出了风险投资估值调整协议是以双赢和规避风险作为其目标,并当项目价值大于约定临界值后,风险投资主体并不会长时间的等待而是及时选择合适时机退出的结论.%This paper studies the valuation adjustment agreement, which was signed by Mengniu and morganstanley and other large institutional investors, and summerizes the characteristics of valuation adjustment agreement; to avoid risks and obtain win-win is the objective of the agreement, uncertainty is the foundation, performance appraisal is a constraint means, equity is a means of stimulation, and a reasonable valuation is a necessary condition for win-win.Based on the above characteristics, the paper establishes a real options model of valuation adjustment agreement and in accordance with the model researches the value of real options and venture capital quit time.It draws the conclusion that when the project value is greater than the agreed critical value, venture capitalists will not be a long wait, but will choose the right time to withdraw from the project.
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