Monitoring changes in land use and its status in real time, and predicting the trend for economic growth, social progress, environmental protection and construction of ecologcal civilization is of important significance. We use CA-Markov model analysis of land use change in Lushun District, Dalian City 1994-2014 and 2024 are predicted years of land use, the results showed: Port Arthur since 1994, building area is increasing, mainly concentrated in the southern and western coastal areas. Meanwhile, the cultivated area has increased, but gradually played back from the West to the foothills of the northern region. Forest area gradually shrunk in size, area fell sharply, the main being cleared for farmland or building sites, in this region in the South, the Southwest, forest land most directly into building land or converted for cultivation and then converted to building land, while the North is mainly transformed into arable land and relatively small population centres. Waters (Lakes, rivers) area decreased, shrinking Lakes, reservoirs, with the acceleration of urbanization and increasing population, this phenomenon will continue to maintain and may deteriorate further. Do not use reduction, it is due to land development and forest logging as well as land disCArded factors lead, but the area has always been small and gradually reduce, improve the efficiency of land use. On the whole, Port Arthur land use changes due to economic construction has intensified, artificial landsCApes and more and more, increasing pressure on ecologiCAl security, over the next deCAde, Lushun trends in land use will continue for 20 years, but slower.%实时监测土地利用及其变化（LUCC）的状况对于经济增长、社会进步、环境保护以及生态文明建设具有重要的意义。本文基于IDRISI软件中的CA-Markov模型，分析了大连市旅顺区1994年－2014年的土地利用变化，同时预测了2024年的土地利用状况。结果表明：旅顺自1994年来，建筑用地面积逐年增加，并主要集中在中南部和西部沿海地区，与此同时，耕地面积也逐年增加，但由原来的西部逐渐演退至北部区域的丘陵地带，林地面积逐步萎缩，面积大幅下降，其主要被开垦为耕地或建筑用地，在本区域中南、西南部，林地大多直接转变为建筑用地或先转变为耕地再转变为建筑用地，而北部则主要转变成了耕地和相对较小的居民点，水域（湖泊、河流）的面积逐年减少，湖泊、水库面积萎缩，随着城镇化的加快和人口数量的不断增加；由于不断地城市用地开发和林地的砍伐以及耕地的弃用等综合因素导致，未利用地减少。总体上，旅顺的土地利用变化由于经济建设的力度不断加大，人工自然景观用地越来越多，生态安全压力不断增大，未来十年间，旅顺土地利用将持续20年来的趋势，但变化速度放缓。
展开▼
