The problem of profit and risk balance in supply chain management is studied. Based on the existing theory, the classic newsboy model is extended to expand the single-cycle newsboy model into a two-cycle ordering model with out-of-stock loss and storage costs. The expected profits over a period of time is used to represent the profits earned by retailers in the core supply chain, and the classic profit mean variance algorithm is used to measure the level of risk. When considering the profit expectation and risk balance, this paper puts forward the efficiency function to balance the return expectation and risk. The simulation results show that the model is feasible. The results show that the ordering model with the out-of-stock loss and storage cost is more reasonable than the ordering model without the storage cost, and it is scientifical to balance the profit and risk in supply chain management with the performance function.%研究了供应链管理中利润与风险平衡问题,在已有理论基础上对经典报童模型进行了扩展,把单周期报童模型扩展为双周期带有缺货损失与保管费用的订购模型.用一段时间内的期望利润表示供应链核心企业零售商所挣的利润,采用经典的利润均值方差算法来衡量风险的高低程度.在综合考虑利润的期望与风险平衡时,提出效能函数来平衡收益期望与风险.并结合实例进行模拟仿真,验证了模型的可行性.结果表明:本文带有缺货损失与保管费用的订购模型,比没有保管费用的订购模型所产生的订购量更为合理,用效能函数来平衡供应链管理中的利润和风险具有科学性.
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