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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America >Intermediate- and long-term earthquake prediction.
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Intermediate- and long-term earthquake prediction.

机译：中长期地震预报。

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Progress in long- and intermediate-term earthquake prediction is reviewed emphasizing results from California. Earthquake prediction as a scientific discipline is still in its infancy. Probabilistic estimates that segments of several faults in California will be the sites of large shocks in the next 30 years are now generally accepted and widely used. Several examples are presented of changes in rates of moderate-size earthquakes and seismic moment release on time scales of a few to 30 years that occurred prior to large shocks. A distinction is made between large earthquakes that rupture the entire downdip width of the outer brittle part of the earth's crust and small shocks that do not. Large events occur quasi-periodically in time along a fault segment and happen much more often than predicted from the rates of small shocks along that segment. I am moderately optimistic about improving predictions of large events for time scales of a few to 30 years although little work of that type is currently underway in the United States. Precursory effects, like the changes in stress they reflect, should be examined from a tensorial rather than a scalar perspective. A broad pattern of increased numbers of moderate-size shocks in southern California since 1986 resembles the pattern in the 25 years before the great 1906 earthquake. Since it may be a long-term precursor to a great event on the southern San Andreas fault, that area deserves detailed intensified study.
机译：回顾了中长期地震预报的进展，重点是加利福尼亚州的结果。地震预测作为一门科学学科仍处于起步阶段。概率估计，在未来30年内，加利福尼亚几个断层的片段将成为大地震的地点，现在已被普遍接受并得到广泛使用。给出了几个例子，说明中型地震发生率的变化和大地震发生前几到30年时间尺度上的地震矩释放。在大地震会破坏地壳的外部脆性部分的整个下倾宽度，而小地震则不会。大事件沿断层段准时地发生，并且发生的次数比沿该断层的小震荡的发生率所预测的要频繁得多。我对在几到30年的时间范围内改进大型事件的预测抱有中等乐观的态度，尽管目前美国这类工作很少。前兆效应，如它们反映的压力变化，应从张量而不是标量的角度进行检查。自1986年以来，南加利福尼亚州发生的中等规模电击数量增加的一种广泛模式类似于1906年大地震发生前25年的模式。由于它可能是圣安德烈亚斯断层南部重大事件的长期先兆，因此该区域值得详细研究。

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