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Determinants of adaptation choices to climate change by sheep and goat farmers in Northern Ethiopia: the case of Southern and Central Tigray Ethiopia

机译：埃塞俄比亚北部绵羊和山羊农对气候变化的适应选择的决定因素：以埃塞俄比亚南部和中提格里为例

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The livestock sector serves as a foremost source of revenue for rural people, particularly in many developing countries. Among the livestock species, sheep and goats are the main source of livelihood for rural people in Ethiopia; they can quickly multiply, resilient and are easily convertible to cash to meet financial needs of the rural producers. The multiple contributions of sheep and goat and other livestock to rural farmers are however being challenged by climate change and variability. Farmers are responding to the impacts of climate change by adopting different mechanisms, where choices are largely dependent on many factors. This study, therefore, aims to analyze the determinants of choices of adaptation practices to climate change that causes scarcity of feed, heat stress, shortage of water and pasture on sheep and goat production. The study used 318 sample households drawn from potential livestock producing districts representing 3 agro-ecological settings. Data was analyzed using simple descriptive statistical tools, a multivariate probit model and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). Most of the respondents (98.6 %) noted that climate is changing. Respondents’ perception is that climate change is expressed through increased temperature (88 %) and decline in rainfall (73 %) over the last 10 years. The most commonly used adaptation strategy was marketing during forage shock (96.5 %), followed by home feeding (89.6 %). The estimation from the multivariate probit model showed that access to information, farming experience, number of households in one village, distance to main market, income of household, and agro-ecological settings influenced farmers’ adaptation choices to climate change. Furthermore, OLS revealed that the adaptation strategies had positive influence on the household income.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s40064-016-3042-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
机译：畜牧业是农村人民收入的最主要来源，尤其是在许多发展中国家。在牲畜种类中，绵羊和山羊是埃塞俄比亚农村人民的主要生计来源。它们可以快速繁殖，适应力强，并且可以轻松转换为现金，以满足农村生产者的资金需求。但是，绵羊，山羊和其他牲畜对农村农民的多重贡献正受到气候变化和多变性的挑战。农民正在通过采取不同的机制来应对气候变化的影响，其中的选择在很大程度上取决于许多因素。因此，本研究旨在分析对气候变化的适应方式选择的决定因素，这些选择会导致饲料短缺，热应激，水和牧场短缺，从而影响绵羊和山羊的生产。该研究使用了来自3个农业生态环境的潜在畜牧生产区的318个样本家庭。使用简单的描述性统计工具，多元概率模型和普通最小二乘（OLS）分析数据。大多数受访者（98.6％）指出气候正在变化。受访者的看法是，过去十年来，气候变化通过温度升高（88％）和降雨减少（73％）来表示。最常用的适应策略是在饲草休克期间进行营销（96.5％），其次是家庭喂养（89.6％）。多元概率模型的估计表明，信息的获取，农业经验，一个村庄的家庭数量，与主要市场的距离，家庭收入以及农业生态环境影响了农民对气候变化的适应选择。此外，OLS还揭示了适应策略对家庭收入具有积极影响。电子补充材料本文的在线版本（doi：10.1186 / s40064-016-3042-3）包含补充材料，授权用户可以使用。

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