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The impact of relative energy prices on industrial energy consumption in China: a consideration of inflation costs

机译：相对能源价格对中国工业能源消费的影响：通货膨胀成本的考虑

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Significant effort has been exerted on the study of economic variables such as absolute energy prices to understand energy consumption and economic growth. However, this approach ignores general inflation effects, whereby the prices of baskets of goods may rise or fall at different rates from those of energy prices. Thus, it may be the relative energy price, not the absolute energy price, that has most important effects on energy consumption. To test this hypothesis, we introduce a new explanatory variable, the domestic relative energy price, which we define as “the ratio of domestic energy prices to the general price level of an economy,” and we test the explanatory power of this new variable. Thus, this paper explores the relationship between relative energy prices and energy consumption in China from the perspective of inflation costs over the period from 1988 to 2012. The direct, regulatory and time-varying effects are captured using methods such as ridge regression and the state-space model. The direct impacts of relative energy prices on total energy consumption and intensity are −0.337 and −0.250, respectively; the effects of comprehensive regulation on energy consumption through the economic structure and the energy structure are −0.144 and −0.148, respectively; and the depressing and upward effects of rising and falling energy prices on energy consumption are 0.3520 and 0.3564, respectively. When economic growth and the energy price level were stable, inflation persisted; thus, rising energy prices benefitted both the economy and the environment. Our analysis is important for policy makers to establish effective energy-pricing policies that ensure both energy conservation and the stability of the pricing system.
机译：已经在研究诸如绝对能源价格之类的经济变量方面做出了巨大努力，以了解能源消耗和经济增长。但是，这种方法忽略了通货膨胀的总体影响，即一篮子商品的价格可能以与能源价格不同的速率上升或下降。因此，对能源消耗影响最大的可能是相对能源价格，而不是绝对能源价格。为了检验该假设，我们引入了一个新的解释变量，即国内相对能源价格，我们将其定义为“国内能源价格与某个经济体的总体价格水平之比”，并检验了该新变量的解释力。因此，本文从1988年至2012年期间的通货膨胀成本的角度探讨了中国相对能源价格与能源消耗之间的关系。使用岭回归和状态等方法来捕获直接，监管和时变效应。空间模型。相对能源价格对总能源消耗和强度的直接影响分别为-0.337和-0.250。通过经济结构和能源结构进行的综合调控对能源消耗的影响分别为-0.144和-0.148；能源价格上涨和下跌对能源消耗的抑制作用和上升作用分别为0.3520和0.3564。当经济增长和能源价格水平稳定时，通货膨胀仍然存在；因此，不断上涨的能源价格使经济和环境都受益。我们的分析对于政策制定者建立有效的能源定价政策至关重要，以确保节能和定价系统的稳定性。

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