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A human-scale perspective on global warming: Zero emission year and personal quotas

机译：人类对全球变暖的看法：零排放年和个人配额

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This article builds on the premise that human consumption of goods, food and transport are the ultimate drivers of climate change. However, the nature of the climate change problem (well described as a tragedy of the commons) makes it difficult for individuals to recognise their personal duty to implement behavioural changes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, this article aims to analyse the climate change issue from a human-scale perspective, in which each of us has a clearly defined personal quota of CO2 emissions that limits our activity and there is a finite time during which CO2 emissions must be eliminated to achieve the “well below 2°C” warming limit set by the Paris Agreement of 2015 (COP21). Thus, this work’s primary contribution is to connect an equal per capita fairness approach to a global carbon budget, linking personal levels with planetary levels. Here, we show that a personal quota of 5.0 tons of CO2 yr-1 p-1 is a representative value for both past and future emissions; for this level of a constant per-capita emissions and without considering any mitigation, the global accumulated emissions compatible with the “well below 2°C” and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2030 and 2050, respectively. These are references years that provide an order of magnitude of the time that is left to reverse the global warming trend. More realistic scenarios that consider a smooth transition toward a zero-emission world show that the global accumulated emissions compatible with the “well below 2°C” and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2040 and 2080, respectively. Implications of this paper include a return to personal responsibility following equity principles among individuals, and a definition of boundaries to the personal emissions of CO2.
机译：本文基于这样一个前提，即人类对商品，食物和运输的消费是气候变化的最终驱动力。但是，气候变化问题的性质（被描述为公地的悲剧）使个人难以认识到自己的个人责任，即实施行为改变以减少温室气体排放。因此，本文旨在从人类角度分析气候变化问题，其中我们每个人都有明确定义的个人CO2排放配额，这限制了我们的活动，并且在一定时间内必须消除CO2排放，达到2015年《巴黎协定》（COP21）设定的“远低于2°C”的升温极限。因此，这项工作的主要贡献是将人均公平方法与全球碳预算联系起来，将个人水平与地球水平联系在一起。在这里，我们表明个人配额为5.0吨yr -1 p -1 是过去和将来排放的代表值。对于这一恒定的人均排放水平，并且不考虑任何缓解措施，到2030年和2050年，将分别耗尽与“远低于2°C”和2°C目标相适应的全球累积排放量。这些参考年份提供了扭转全球变暖趋势所需的时间量级。考虑到向零排放世界平稳过渡的更为现实的情况表明，与“远低于2°C”和2°C目标兼容的全球累积排放量将分别在2040年和2080年耗尽。本文的含义包括遵循个人公平原则恢复对个人的责任，以及对个人二氧化碳排放界限的定义。

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