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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>Journal of Clinical Medicine >Short-term Forecasts of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Guangdong and Zhejiang China: February 13–23 2020
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Short-term Forecasts of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Guangdong and Zhejiang China: February 13–23 2020

机译：中国广东省和浙江省COVID-19流行病的短期预测：2020年2月13日至23日

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The ongoing COVID-19 epidemic continues to spread within and outside of China, despite several social distancing measures implemented by the Chinese government. Limited epidemiological data are available, and recent changes in case definition and reporting further complicate our understanding of the impact of the epidemic, particularly in the epidemic’s epicenter. Here we use previously validated phenomenological models to generate short-term forecasts of cumulative reported cases in Guangdong and Zhejiang, China. Using daily reported cumulative case data up until 13 February 2020 from the National Health Commission of China, we report 5- and 10-day ahead forecasts of cumulative case reports. Specifically, we generate forecasts using a generalized logistic growth model, the Richards growth model, and a sub-epidemic wave model, which have each been previously used to forecast outbreaks due to different infectious diseases. Forecasts from each of the models suggest the outbreaks may be nearing extinction in both Guangdong and Zhejiang; however, the sub-epidemic model predictions also include the potential for further sustained transmission, particularly in Zhejiang. Our 10-day forecasts across the three models predict an additional 65–81 cases (upper bounds: 169–507) in Guangdong and an additional 44–354 (upper bounds: 141–875) cases in Zhejiang by February 23, 2020. In the best-case scenario, current data suggest that transmission in both provinces is slowing down.
机译：尽管中国政府采取了一些社会疏远措施，但仍在持续的COVID-19流行病在中国国内外传播。现有的流行病学数据有限，而且病例定义和报告的最新变化进一步使我们对流行病的影响（尤其是在流行病的震中）的理解更加复杂。在这里，我们使用先前验证的现象学模型来生成中国广东省和浙江省累计报告病例的短期预测。使用中国国家卫生委员会截至2020年2月13日的每日报告累计病例数据，我们报告了累计病例报告提前5天和10天的预测。具体来说，我们使用广义Logistic增长模型，Richards增长模型和次流行波模型生成预测，这些模型先前已用于预测由于不同传染病引起的疫情。每个模型的预测都表明，广东和浙江的疫情可能已接近灭绝。但是，亚流行病模型的预测还包括进一步持续传播的潜力，特别是在浙江。我们对这三个模型的10天预报预测，到2020年2月23日，广东省还将增加65-81例（上限：169-507），浙江省将增加44-354例（上限：141-875）。在最佳情况下，当前数据表明这两个省的传播正在放缓。

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